Sept. 9, 2021

Over/Under on Vegas AFC/NFC Win Totals For The 2021 NFL Season

Over/Under on Vegas AFC/NFC Win Totals For The 2021 NFL Season

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Dave and Mike sit down and go over Las Vegas's projected win total for every NFL team in the AFC and NFC. We'll tell you who they got right, and who they got dead wrong!

Hosts: Dave Clarke, Michael Marcangelo
Producer: Craig D'Alessandro

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Transcript
Craig D'Alessandro:

On this episode of MTP, we go over the Vegas odds for wins and losses for the 2021 NFL season and see if we can pick them better. Of course we can. This is missing the point, Episode 86. But it's all relative.

Dave Clarke:

What's up fuckers? It's missing the point. It's the regular show to coincide. The fun Jim McBride interview that Joe and Mike did. Check that out the show notes. Go listen to that one after you listen to this one. This is to get you primed for NFL seasons if you weren't primed Enough already. I have the pleasure tonight of being on the show with Mike Markangelo, who was part of that Jimmy Bryan interview you're gonna go check out after this. And as usual, produced by our wonderful Producer Craig D'Alessandro. Gentlemen, tonight, we are going to go through the official Vegas over unders records of every NFL team. The NFL prediction show that Bill Simmons does we're just ripping off the format of 100% said it's gonna be me and Mike and not bill and cousins cousin sound. So it's better you know, we're the best so it's gonna work out great. pretty well. Worst to best. We're gonna talk about every team. What we think how they're going to be key players injuries. COVID. Who's got you know, we're gonna talk about all of it. But we're gonna skip the stupid teams no one cares about so we'll play that by ear as we go. But we're gonna go worst to best so Vegas seems to think, Mike that the Houston Texans are gonna be the worst team in the NFL this year. They think that they're gonna win four games. Apart from the obvious which we'll get to have deshaun Watson's unfortunate offseason to put it nicely.

Michael Marcangelo:

I mean, honestly, it sounds like he had a pretty good offseason.

Dave Clarke:

Oh, geez. It depends how you look at it.

Michael Marcangelo:

It seems like he enjoyed himself.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, it absolutely depends how you look at it. It's not it doesn't seem like it's gonna go great for him because I think he's got more grand jury indictment clauses then teammates at this point. So let's say like four wins. And I'm I'm concerned, because I don't know where these four wins are even really coming from I think I would go under on this. What do you think? I mean,

Michael Marcangelo:

so I assume that Vegas is under the assumption that deshaun Watson doesn't start more than eight games, because if he plays more than eight games, I think it's a real there's a real chance that he does win Florida. And then in reality, like, can they find another win? And the other nine games probably, I think four is really low for this team. Again, I just think with the NFL, his track record, he's gonna play. He might not play the full year. So I'm gonna take the over for the Texans.

Dave Clarke:

I mean, I think that's fair. But and we have talked about this. I think we talked about this on our full records prediction show with like, everybody. Yeah, but like, because of the track record in the NFL, like, I get it, but like, Oh, this one seems bad. This one seems bad. Like, when Ray Rice, like gave his girlfriend the full event or Holyfield in the elevator, and you're like watching this horrific video unfold of this, this guy could die. You know, these are guys that could do this to grown men, you know, and they do it to people half their size and elevators, you see those repercussions come up. And nobody really felt like it was enough for the race, the whole race thing? Because we saw it Right, right. Right. Right. It's like if it was just recorded it wouldn't you know what I mean? It's like video evidence is obviously a huge thing. This one feels different than that because there are like legitimate like, there's like pieces of paper that say like law type shit at the top the top of it and like the name is like all over it. And there's like a lot of them. And it's I just feel like it's out of the NFL his hands Allah. Aaron Hernandez, but like, obviously not that you know, like, not murder, but like, you know, the way the NFL is just like, Oh, fuck, Alright, see you later. And I know obviously, it's a different profiles player, like obviously Sean's a much more important player, as a quarterback as an all star quarterback. But like, I don't know if he sees the field, man. I really don't know

Michael Marcangelo:

not to go into too much of a diatribe here. But shouldn't they grade him on the same scale that Robert Kraft was graded on? I mean, there's actual video of this happening. I think Robert Kraft paid a sex worker. And that's different. That's consensual. It sounds like deshaun Watson paid these people to come to his house and then asked again, I don't condone it, but you know what I mean? Like, it's tough to talk about cuz you don't really know like, Yeah, I don't wanna I don't really I don't want to get cancelled or anything like that. We don't have a big enough club for to get canceled. But there was actual video of the two people that we're talking about here and Ray Rice and that's why he got hosted. I need Adrian Peterson planning You know, tyreke Hill played again. And if we grade him on on the tyreke Hill skill, he'll play 13 games this year.

Dave Clarke:

Well, but the problem is like, I feel like it's such a compounded mess down there because it was already a mess before this shit happened, right? Yeah. I mean, just Shawn was in a better spot because he had leverage and you knew like, there was a point. Last season ended last season going into the offseason where I was like, Oh, well, Sean's gonna get traded, probably wherever he wants, and the Texans are gonna get pennies on the dollar in return, because like, he's made it know that he wants to leave, he's lost and all that leverage now. So like, maybe it evens out. But it's gotta be such a dysfunctional organization, or they're like you've been, you've been in shitty jobs. You know, it's like, the women it's run top to bottom, so dysfunctional, that the whole world can see it. That means when you're going into work, the whole place is dysfunctional, you know. And I just think it's that's gonna translate to the field that it always does. If you want to learn about how to destroy a startup 20 years into it being created. industry of the Houston Texans, incredible. Incredible.

Michael Marcangelo:

I mean, they were bad for years on yours. When they started, they finally rose to prominence. And then they stripped away that entire team, no matter two seasons, it

Dave Clarke:

record time. And the crazy thing is like, well, how old were we when the Texans became a franchise? Because they were the last 1002? Yeah, so we were like, 11 or 12.

Michael Marcangelo:

I was 14, but yeah, okay, well, you're learning.

Dave Clarke:

But I was like, 11, or 12. I was 12. So you, I remember them being created. They were like the last expansion team leader full of our lifetime. And you kind of think, kind of 10 years of leeway, gets shorter, or 15, even though years of leeway, where it was like, Oh, yeah, that's the Houston Texans suck. But like, they're new, like, give them a second, you know, and they'll figure it out. And they really did build up a pretty fun team, when when everybody was there before they started making really strange decisions and people started leaving, and then the whole dushaan thing, but they were fun. They were athletic, they were explosive. They were Cool School players. Just Shawn was like the, you know, on paper, most athletically gifted quarterback in the NFL. And it was so much fun to watch and European. He almost developed a soft spot for the Texans, like Bobby always said, so many times last season is like he had you they were up on the Chiefs by like 24 weeks and ahead of time, and then from that point, like you can mark it, that comeback happens and then the whole for it. That was such a bad comeback that the whole franchise fell in on itself, you know, and they're gonna it's gonna take another 20 years from them recover from this. It's bonkers.

Michael Marcangelo:

So not to spend too much time on the text. It's, it's crazy though. If you just think about it in the last three years, they have they went from having dushaan deshaun. Watson will fuller DeAndre Hopkins, Tyrell Matthew, David cloudy JJ Watt. And they're all gone. All of them are gone. And one of them's you know, almost, you know, he's still there, but you might not play it for a year.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah. And honestly, if you take Shaun Watson and like it just on the field agenda, you can't but if you take him just on the field, without any of the other shit very disappointed what's like What's happened? Because like they do there could have been an all time great, you know, and it's just not going to be now you just can tell like the writing's on the wall. And I just like that's the sort of sad too, because it's obviously it's worse what happened to like whoever he did, you know, allegedly did the things that he shouldn't do, but like, for us as football fans purely in that lens, Twitter, okay, relax. Purely in the liver through the lens of being a football fan. It's disappointing. All right, let's move on Detroit Lions. 4.5. So Vegas doesn't seem to think that there. It had four and a half games. They're a little bit better than the Texans according to Vegas. I think they're a little bit worse. I think I'd take the under and that too. I'm biased because they're in my division. What do you think it Alliance?

Michael Marcangelo:

I mean, I'm not picking the middle of the division this year, dude, but I think I think they got worse in every position. I mean, if you really think about it,sunshine is not as good as Matthew Stafford. Right. So right, that right then in there, I think do you have a problem? I think that he's a situational. I think he's a situational quarterback that is predicated on having really good coaching. I don't I don't think he has that right now. So I'll take the under.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah. I The more I think about it, the more I realize how good of a trade that was for the Rams. Yeah. And how like he fits there. He's gonna have a good season because it's like, you know, kind of a bounce back season for him and like he doesn't have to play with the lions anymore. Yeah, like he may have been the only thing winning them games. Bro Woody, the lions. Me. So now that he's gone, I just don't see it. Now. What I will say is I think that no, you know, we'll come back to this theme. The NFC north is weaker than it has been in the last 10 years or so. I think you know, Aaron Rodgers his dominance with the Packers is starting to fade which is good. Yep. But the Vikings I mean, I've been trying to tell people the Vikings terrible were pretenders

Michael Marcangelo:

your Kirk Cousins is nothing dude. You know you we talked What it is all the time, right? Like he's just, he is a polished Jay Cutler.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah. And well, a lot of times, all you're asking for from Jay was a little polish. Yeah. But, but what I will say about Jay Cutler, which is like it when people do revisionist history on Jay Cutler, because I know that he wasn't a winner in the end and I know how to stone. The story was written on him. His arm was huge, like a huge he had a huge arm and like, there was there, there was good reason to think he was gonna be a top five guy at a certain point in our lives. It didn't turn out that way. And it was disappointing for me obviously, I was always pulling for him. But I don't know if we have that same level of ceiling with Kirk Cousins. I think everyone's pretty well aware that he sucks.

Michael Marcangelo:

You're Jay Cutler was a billion dollar arm 10 cent head and Kirk Cousins is like maybe a million dollar arm at that he's, again a 10 cent head. He has better weapons around him. But I think all for one year that Jay Cutler or two years, Brandon Marshall and Alisha Jeffrey. But I mean, he never had I guess he had my forte. slamming he probably should have done more.

Dave Clarke:

But I think what do you look back on it? Kirk Cousins is nothing you have one good run in Washington. He's been playing on that Washington run ever since though. He's been playing on that nickel for a while. So we feel like there's like a lot of like clone quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Like you could put them all in a bus and just drive the bus off a cliff like you have like, Kirk Cousins I feel like he's he kingdoms in that kind of mold. I feel like Fitzpatrick's in there. Just all these middling they're just middling quarterbacks like they're just they're they're like Dalton's in there like they're just guys good enough to like get a little bit too much of a contract and just kind of bone your team because you know they're not as good as they need to be to like when you anything their floor is a basement you can talk yourself into all of these guys you know you can really be like no maybe I mean you're the one good year insert team here yeah and hear that it's like okay, well yeah, okay got it through a couple pics. You know like everyone be like member force in the Super Bowl member falls and I'd be very guilty of it myself. I was like I remember he played a great game like he did greedy step didn't last minute that's like takes brass balls. He's not good. It's just like the way it is. He's just not cool. Especially in today's gonna flow. We get better match shop match shoppers is the guy that I always think about is like speaker speaking of the Houston Texans question we all met like Joe Flacco like I know he had that great playoff run but like overall he was one of these guys. You know what I mean? Like he got paid a lot of money for that one run basically. That about does it for the Detroit Lions. We talked about them so much and I will I think we can power through the next few because they're just all nothing teams, jets, Eagles bangles. Jags are all at six, six and a half. I feel like there those are that's all fair. That's all a push across the board on those like I feel like the Giants I would 100% take the owner on because I think that they're awful. I think that they have no blocking and I think sake one's gonna get injured again for that reason, very, very quickly. And if they're gonna win six and a half games, they better win seven games at the start of the season because like he's he runs so fucking hard that like he's not gonna last the whole season and they're just taking chunks off his career longevity every year that they don't get him some protection. And that's when I feel like what that's what's gonna happen

Michael Marcangelo:

I think like six wins six or seven wins for the Jets away. We talked about that a couple weeks ago when we were all on right Eagles you know if Jalen and devonta Smith can figure it out like I think they can get seven wins

Dave Clarke:

they're the biggest like I think the Eagles are the biggest

Michael Marcangelo:

daddy figure I think if they can protect Joe burrow

Dave Clarke:

then who knows right but more slump though. Things like price usually that guy guy that'd be primed for something like in that will full freshman campaign cuz he got knocked out with that injury. That's another red flag. Don't you think?

Michael Marcangelo:

Yeah, he's got his old buddy. That as long as you know he stays in good standing off the field as well. I think it could be dangerous but yeah, I think I do think out of that max. It's Philly. right because that division is just so weak. They could win the division at eight nine.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, it was like that last year with that division. Like I feel like the Jags out of that group. I would take the over

Michael Marcangelo:

with urban fires sucks dude.

Dave Clarke:

I know where like I know but I feel

Michael Marcangelo:

terrible he's gonna be he's gonna be figured out in six weeks. So if in six weeks there six of them are there section Oh, sure. Great.

Dave Clarke:

I could see a ride and like some momentum I feel like they can win a couple games in like a funky way at the start. And like ride some momentum down the stretch before they get figured out like you remember when the dolphins decided to run the Wildcat and everyone had like not figured out the Wildcat yet. And they weren't like nine games. It never I don't even know if it was that many but they were like shifted to have a chit chit chit It was like a horse had bolted from the stable. And then finally I think they played the Patriots and belcheck was like, it's cool. I figured it out. And then like before, you couldn't really want to run the Wildcat anymore like that. I think

Michael Marcangelo:

you see that? Okay, I think that yeah, that's comparable. I just think that if they do win, it will be this it will be in spite of their terrible coach. I believe

Dave Clarke:

it's because the Trevor Lawrence though, like do you see him at all in the preseason? I feel like he's been the best. He's got like probably an insane amount of confidence. He's been like the best player on every single team and every single week he's ever played it right. So yeah, there might be a little bit of a wake up call going to going into NFL competition. I think he's definitely a force some passes because I feel like he he thinks he can make every play. So like, that's gonna be as big rookie downside, but he's got crazy pocket awareness. He's got a fucking great arm. Like he's a really good quarterback. And there's a reason he went when he would and it's like, Can I think that guy can get seven games? eight games, right? Like a guy that good? I feel like you can you know, I don't know. I mean, I know he looks like he just quit like Cobra Kai, last week, but like he's still got an arm.

Michael Marcangelo:

So I don't know. Tony Romo is a pretty good quarterback who struggled to get more than eight wins. But that passed out of the head coach, so right,

Dave Clarke:

I would just go I would just repeat that with a minor point of I don't think he was that good. So I did not learn from that little group of, of misfits. The Raiders at seven. All your favorites. I don't see it. I don't see him winning seven games. I figured I heard someone say they were a playoff contender. I heard someone say that they were a playoff contender this year. which drew I was crazy. I feel like seven and 10 is the perfect Jon Gruden year for you, dude. Dude, he is he knows at this point. Completely not justifying his contract was like, Can I just get like he has been so bad for what they paid him. Ah, already before this season starts like he's in recovery mode at this.

Michael Marcangelo:

I think it's the first two years who's pretty good because he had he didn't have a lot of talent there. But he should have turned it on by now. They shouldn't be a 1011 win team. If he was as good as as everyone says he is. Do you see him winning 10 games this year? I don't know. I mean, he's gonna lose to his own division. Right.

Dave Clarke:

It's a tough spot. I mean, I don't know it's a tough spot is a weird thing. They didn't even have that much money when he was provably terrible. I'm moving on up the list. It's we're gonna hit the bears so soon and it's very upsetting to me. Yeah. Falcons. Falcons are the same team they were last year. Matt Ryan is not ever gonna win a championship saucepot for him BCI I doubt after that. After that. patriots come back. Okay. I feel like he cried himself to sleep every night still.

Michael Marcangelo:

He's literally never been the same dude. Would you be? No, I mean, he's completely and utterly rattled. I get it. I think, you know, you lose someone like Julio, but you bring someone in like, like, like

Dave Clarke:

pits. Or Julio, but Julio isn't Julio anymore, you know? Yeah.

Michael Marcangelo:

Well, I'm 75% of Julio still better than 90% of the week. You know what I mean? But I think Kyle Pitts is that is He's a monster. He's gonna He's really good. I don't know that their defense will be good. So I mean, if gun to my head. I'll take the under of seven and a half words.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, I'm you sure that's right. I feel like under the safe because like

Michael Marcangelo:

your Tampa Bay twice, and then you also you probably get a split set. So there's three losses right there.

Dave Clarke:

Would you even split the saints though? Like I don't even know. I feel like maybe they lose

Michael Marcangelo:

James is gonna throw three picks against it gets Falcons to the point to

Dave Clarke:

talk about talking yourself into somebody, we'll get to the kids on the saints, but like, wherever jameis Winston goes, a group of people will talk themselves into him being good. Because all they have to do is they bring up his touchdown numbers and his interception numbers and then they just cover one eye. Yeah, yeah, look, it's gonna be great. It's just like it's trigger treatment him like he's like the Tony Allen of NFL quarterbacks. That's such a good comparison dude. But, but I think I would probably take you under the fox to I have to agree with you there. Panthers are also at seven and a half. I feel like I would take the over on that. I've been taking too many unders I could see Christian McCaffrey actually when the games

Michael Marcangelo:

start, come on. What if my boy PJ Walker is is playing quarterback? Today? I'll take the over. If it's Sam Donald man, I don't care how accurate he looks in the preseason. He's

Dave Clarke:

gonna start I mean he's gonna

Michael Marcangelo:

he's gonna start which is fine but no defense schemes in the preseason. So you can't create a quarterbacks? Well, their progress based on that's not just limited. Well, some people have it. Sam, Darnald Sam Darnald look better than he is because teams were just running a baseline defense, just in fields who you're who you think I'm talking about? is just that damn good. Like, that's just what happens. Yeah,

Dave Clarke:

I hope so.

Michael Marcangelo:

I want to have this a condition. little paper that apparently I can't so based on what I know right now I'll take the Carolina Panthers added under seven and 10

Dave Clarke:

okay all right i'd probably take the over with them but only because I feel like Christian McCaffrey is due for like a full season where he just like runs over everybody but yeah you're right quarterbacks tough for them and I'm not really sure their defenses that so we'll see I'm moving up the next seven and a half team is Chicago Bears I feel like that's so unfair so unfair I have to take the over on that which I guess probably probably knew I was gonna do i do accept that we can't block and that's very upsetting to me and I think about it as I fall asleep at night and like the offensive line like problem became a problem really fast in this offseason you know with a couple of key personnel areas that we should have addressed and didn't that's gonna be a problem and I think our defenses a little bit worse but Justin fields I mean, I just I feel like he's gonna make plays. Really he's gonna make plays. And I think we also have we also have some decent players the tight end position that might help our blocking if we scheme it right. manag is very close to getting fired though. Like if he starts off with a three year old for I don't know, I think we're rudderless at the start of the season. But yeah, go ahead.

Michael Marcangelo:

Okay, so a couple of things you're pickingthe over because because of Justin fields you assume at some point time that you will win the job over any adult Yeah, I'm

Dave Clarke:

worried it's gonna be fine games though.

Michael Marcangelo:

However, but if I could just make make you know a little chicken salad out of the chicken shit situation that you have. They're fine. They're terrible offensive line means that Andy Dalton probably gets knocked out before game five I feel Justin fields may have 15 games as a starter and for that reason, and that reason alone. I've taken me over

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, great. I it's just I just feel like naggy is the kind of guy that doesn't do the easy thing in these situations and tries to be a little bit too clever for his own good. And at the end of the day, like both those guys got there at the same time pretty much so I just don't understand like yeah, of course you told Dalton he was going to be QB one but then he dropped the field so it is what it is. It's just like obviously it's got to be fields like that's to me it's just so obvious to start him let him get reps let him play his fucking game. But I just can't I can see myself waking up on Sunday night and hearing that it's Dalton and just like being so mad, like just being so upset. And I even though I know what's coming, I know what's coming. I can see the team sheet in front of me I can see the starters listed out and I'm going to do what I'm going to do I'm going to go into Twitter I'm gonna go into the replies and I'm just gonna misery and I'm gonna say mean shit about Matt naggy and it's gonna be okay.

Michael Marcangelo:

I do think that the prospect of Justin fields being on the bench keeps that Maggie's job this year right I think because if he does start off one in four he's got his he's got a silver bullet back there that can bring him at two you know again, we'll call it 12 and

Dave Clarke:

that's why he's gonna start doubting himself time yeah for sure it's smart it's annoying you know I had I don't have enough time left on this earth to see a good quarterback play for the Chicago Bears at this point like the thing is is and you know as I've been texting you guys on the group chat about my Madden career come seeing Justin fields in a bears uniform like he's so he's just looks the part man like before you even see what throw a ball did like the fact that he's like number one he's a QB one looks like he's got the look like he looks great in Madden and when I finally and it wasn't easy by the way when in effect Super Bowl in that franchise mode I put it on hard mode okay and I had to make a lot of money from are all Madden all men every time you know gotta gotta set up the real realism I downloaded the real life rosters and edit any players I took the real bears. I traded fucking everybody salary cap or an on or off salary cap on all the rules like it was an online ones that does all your labor rules the way it's supposed to play competitive. I fucking traded everyone I fire Matt naggy before I even walked through the front door man as he was walking out as I was walking in. I fuckin fired everybody on the coaching staff. I hired new people. I picked my own schemes. And I just I drafted really well and I did really good but I built it around Justin fields and seeing Justin fields hold on Lombardi Trophy, however graphical in the Madden challenge of winning a Super Bowl with the Chicago Bears, which was challenging Adam start over a couple times. Because I'm like, Oh shit, how much money did I give him? Seeing him all the Lombardi Trophy? It felt prophetic. I could see it in my mind's eye IRL. I could see it. In fact, I even made it my profile picture in our Discord server is just Justin fields but holding Lombardi Trophy. I can see it. So let's get started. Let's get started. Matt, we're not on your time, Matt. We're on my fucking time. Matt put them in

Michael Marcangelo:

you do understand that I hate every single part of your scenario right like I hate the Justin fields is there not here I hate the I don't I hate to get the new Madden and played it I can't all things that I hate. But yeah I mean it's I'm still thinking the old dude it's not gonna be close I do you think tenant sentiments or is it is a surrealistic record. And I think you could usually get to the blouse there.

Dave Clarke:

I would trade it all to see my team with half as many championships as you've seen your team win. That's so or even a period I take appearances you could have my PS five, so I appreciate you taking me over makes me feel good. Let's let's move on to the Denver Broncos who plays for the Denver Broncos. I don't know if I could name for Denver Broncos.

Michael Marcangelo:

Forced tough. I couldn't do that either. But Teddy Bridgewater drew Locke, Melvin Gordon. And oh, Mike. linebacker right the best their best player from their Super Bowl and Juju. Right? What is that? Is that a name? familiar still? I know they're still there. But Juju plays for the Steelers. No, no, no, not Juju Smith Schuster. But there is a there's a second Juju? Yeah, it doesn't matter. I think that's his last name. It doesn't matter. I'll take the I'll take. Broncos ate the hat under that to play the chargers. Or the charge.

Dave Clarke:

Are we 100% sure the chargers are good. Yeah. Are you sure? They're not as good as the other la team? he there? It's It's close. There within again. We'll talk about the charges and we get to the charges. Yeah, I would say I don't I apparently am woefully under informed on what the fuck is up with the Denver Broncos and their the lack of oxygen we have up there. But yeah, I'm sure I'll go with you. I'll take the under I can't even really think of a take on the Denver Broncos because like they're so fucking important. They're such a middling shitty nobody cares about your team. Sorry, Denver. The Washington football team. Eight and a half in Vegas. Over they've got some weapons. Hey, I feel like they could do some stuff over there.

Michael Marcangelo:

I mean, based on what we saw in the playoffs for that rookie from the rookie last year. And now I think Fitzpatrick is he's more he just good for dubs, though. He'll

Dave Clarke:

get you some dubs. Yeah, you know, in for the purposes of over unders like I feel like he can. Yeah, I think got some weapons. But who cares about them also, like we're right in the middle of this, like, we're in the middle of this middle table teams that really are not going to cause any further didn't worry. Yeah, it's not gonna cause any controversy. Um, Kyler Murray sophomore slump, I think with the Cardinals. Eight and a half Vegas hasn't didn't have I got Yeah, I'll take the under on them. I don't think they're that good. You think they're gonna go eight, nine, or worse? Yeah, yeah, definitely. Their defense is not good. It's not true. I think Yeah, I don't think they're very good. Um, they've got Kyler Murray, who I think is going to regress slightly this season, because he's gonna get scammed. They're gonna people are gonna scheme for him a little bit more. Who's in their division?

Michael Marcangelo:

I mean, if Kyler Murray's schemes? Well, Justin feels the scheme for to

Dave Clarke:

just enough tape on him. There's not enough tape on them as a bear.

Michael Marcangelo:

It depends what they do with it might be I think they need to get JJ Watt there in the offseason. So that's going to kind of shore up the defensive line and increase the pass rush. I don't think Jake Chandler Jones plays a full year there. I think he's requested a trade. So actually, it's

Dave Clarke:

Kyler Murray's third year, isn't it? I fucking always forget about like, 2020 as a year that happened to us in life. Yeah, it is kind of Reese 30. Yeah, he'll probably be fun. All right. Fuck it. I'll

Michael Marcangelo:

take the over two. You've talked me into it. I do have them going nine and eight. But it's it's it's so

Dave Clarke:

so they're right there though. I mean, we pray these Vegas people they're Smart Cookies. You know, they pick they pick.

Michael Marcangelo:

They pick right up the money some time. But here we go. Here is one of my favorite, favorite pics. And Dave I want you to read it out loud. Are

Dave Clarke:

you gonna take the other? Pretty good take the under on this. And I want you to read the total for me out loud please. The Pittsburgh Steelers are eight and a half polarizing I'm sure. You are taking you under.

Michael Marcangelo:

I'm taking me under. Yeah, I have them at eight and 10 so apparently,

Dave Clarke:

I'm just gonna I don't want to die on this hill again.

Michael Marcangelo:

haven't met you but love you Leah. I mean it but you get anybody but Big Ben in that. And they are uploaded there in over.

Dave Clarke:

Okay, I just like to make this point because I am going to try and write them out again this year. I thought Ben looks pretty good. In the preseason. He was skinny. He lost a little weight. That's not true. Yeah, it is. But if you lost a little weight,

Michael Marcangelo:

great is like, oh, what are we talking about here?

Dave Clarke:

He just came in a little bit fitter. I think he was a little bit better shape, which I think he was not doing before. And I think that that is a ninja. What's the name and I'm running back to New Just draft. RJ Harris. Yeah, he's gonna be unreal. Yeah. And like, you know, that happens with the Steelers, they go and get like a skill player and you're like, Okay, so you know, they were going to school play and then the guys like the best disposition of the league. And I think that can take them over eight and a half games I really do. And like who do they play? Like?

Michael Marcangelo:

I mean, how good do you think that the Ravens are? They have the third toughest schedule in the league this year? Because they record last year. That's right. That's right. That's

Dave Clarke:

right. You said that. Yeah. And you were I know, you know, I do remember your point last year that about how they were playing, they played soft teams. But like that would be a big swing. Do you think like a big swing to win less than eight and a half games? And then they were doing so good last year? I

Michael Marcangelo:

don't know. I think the last five games of the regular season is more indicative of who the Steelers were then in the first 11 games, right? And I did reference this back last year when I said that 11 No, at this year was a 2020 is exactly what he knows with the Patriots in 2019. They were just they weren't playing anybody. They weren't really getting tested. And yet, and then when they did they get kicked in the face. And they could not recover.

Dave Clarke:

I was I mean, I feel that I'm a little bit nervous about the bears for that same reason, though, because I feel like we're playing Brady's division. We got to play fucking Tampa Bay and shit is just like, I mean, last year. I know I didn't that feel like a little bit of a like they kind of came out weird, though. And like it was loudly couldn't hear the signals. So I think we got a couple breaks. And then it came out. I don't know. Yeah, I guess I destroyed the schedule does, it does matter. But also its trade. The schedule has a tendency to go out the window, like once the season kicks off, you know, it's like, oh, that seems better than we thought that seems worse than we thought like, so maybe Pittsburgh doesn't play the craziest schedule that we think you know, like maybe they eke it out a couple times like they did last year. And like all of a sudden they have another fatter record. I would take the over with them. Honestly,

Michael Marcangelo:

can I just ask like, how much of the over like, do you think 11 wins.

Dave Clarke:

I'm like nine I'm thinking like nine one? Good. I wouldn't be surprised. for other reasons. We just talked about like just the cousins effect, you know? Yeah, I don't have much to say about them. I just I feel like they were kind of frauds when they were good. When they were making into conference championships a few years ago. I might just knew they weren't a Super Bowl winning team. And I don't think cousins is the guy. They have obviously a great backfield. But I don't know if that's enough. Like we've talked about that a million times. Like you know, key line your running backs.

Michael Marcangelo:

So nine wins, right? That's tough. I feel like that's exactly where they should be. They have to play the Packers twice. They're gonna lose both of those games. Yeah, but I mean, no offense, if they play the Vikings, or they if they play the bears early. They're gonna be

Dave Clarke:

we do play them early. We play them like week two or three. So they're gonna split with the bears. They're gonna sweep the lions. Yeah, they are going to take the first game off the bears if dogs play. Yeah, that's. God dammit. I'm really bummed out. Like, did you I definitely don't do this podcast feel better when we fucking team? I call it push. Yeah, I would take a push on that. I mean, I'm taking on it, because I hate them. But yeah, from Yeah, I think they're probably right in the middle of these middling teams are right on the money. Yep. Um, cowboys.

Michael Marcangelo:

I mean, this is a perfect place to live tonight.

Dave Clarke:

I'm taking them over. We're taking them over. I'm taking them like 11 wins this year.

Michael Marcangelo:

Stop it neat. Yeah. Do you actually believe that? Or is Bobby texty right now? Like there's no way that that makes sense?

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, that was the best quarterback by the numbers in the league when he went down last year. I remember wanting three I know what they improved their defensive defense was so bad and they concentrated personnel was heavily on their defense in the new koci

Michael Marcangelo:

they were on their way to to agree remember that they were on their way to two and three. And he was the best player in the league in his position. I know because their defense was so bad. Yeah, so their defense will be a little bit Sure.

Dave Clarke:

I mean, there's only one way to go that's up. I don't know I gotta feel it about him this year. You know, the receivers are still good. Ezekiel Elliott I watched a lot of hard knocks he's looking good Give me that get new Hard Knocks made the Buccaneers three years ago make me think that they were a good team I was like oh James can throwing

Michael Marcangelo:

Evans is really good

Dave Clarke:

they were a good team look into they want to shoot purple. Well they did you get a couple balls of many good but that's this is exactly my point. It's all the makings of the Super Bowl winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers were there that season when they did that fuck Hard Knocks except for Tom Brady and a couple of skilled positions they had they had the bones of a really good team. It's never good to have your team on hard knocks. It's not it's it's depressing. It's they're almost always a bad season right after I would never want the bears on her nose ever. I would watch every second of it. But like I you know, whatever. Yeah, cowboys are nice. I just know I've been enjoying it. I think Zeke looks really good. I think he's gonna be competing with McCaffrey for numbers this year. One and two, I think. I mean, that's not new. You know, that's not a hot take. But and I again I don't put a ton of stock on the on the halfback running back position in 2021 and not as much as I did when you know, we were like 10 but he's really good. If you're that good, you can change a game and I think they have a decently easy schedule. So yeah, I'll take you over. You're welcome Bobby 11 games to the Dallas Cowboys. Go Go. Push, huh God, you're just saying you're just chill. She's like playing poker with someone who never raises

Michael Marcangelo:

chest I just can't find more than nine ones it could be because it always split with the giants, right? I think that the lions won't go

Dave Clarke:

they will do this year. The giants are so bad. They will they always do. They won't. They're gonna win you games against the giants. Mark my word. I

Michael Marcangelo:

think Washington beat them twice. And I think they split with Philly.

Dave Clarke:

So don't you dare beat Philly twice. Philly are bad.

Michael Marcangelo:

I think that Phillies offense can be better than is better than the Dallas defense for sure.

Dave Clarke:

I think you take the upside of every quarterback. If you think about and talk about could ever you see a quarterback you're like, Alright, this is who he is. Besides back. Besides Dak Prescott? Yeah, no, that's true. I mean, well, you are actually very prone to be worried about injuries. And I think a lot of times it turns out to be true, especially with football, where it's like that because like, it was kind of the Gordon Hayward like he got the gourd paper. Yeah. And I know it's a different sport. But it took Gordon Hayward like three years to be in any way the same player again.

Michael Marcangelo:

It's just tough when you have a leg injury and then you're held out of practice because your shoulder. The shoulder thing is soft and easy yet, so I hope he's okay. I hope whatever.

Unknown:

It's breaking. I hope he's fine. I guess. I just don't i don't think he's as good as Bobby Hulk. He is.

Dave Clarke:

You're the closest to wishing that you could possibly be without full automation. Here like we're right up against the edge, whatever. No, I get it. I don't think big Dallas Cowboys is really going to be anybody's business this year. Like I think a lot and I think 11 wins used to be a good record and I think that it's the record that's switched to the most with adding one extra game I think 11 wins is now an average record. Yeah, like a slightly above average record for like if you're trying to compete and I don't think an 11 win team does much in the playoffs only they're going to do much of the playoffs but considering their division. I don't rate right I don't rank the division very highly. I think they could potentially go above nine so I take 10 or 11 and I'll just go 11 for Bobby sake just to be a nice guy. Obviously you think they're terrible. You're probably right. Just so gross. The Indianapolis Colts nine that seems right we can just move past them. The Tennessee Titans interesting at nine games. I mean, Henry's a freak in nature. I feel like they could weigh more than nine do anything. Yeah, but

Michael Marcangelo:

can we just go back one second to the Colts? Really? Here's what the Colts I just think that the new combination of Winston and his old offensive coordinator that gives them five wins

Dave Clarke:

not gonna mean anything. He's not good.

Michael Marcangelo:

You see, he's the reason that the Philadelphia was in the position to get to the Super Bowl that year so like he's

Dave Clarke:

not the reason they want us to bulldoze who cares.

Michael Marcangelo:

I'm taking me over for Indy, and I'm taking the over for Tennessee.

Dave Clarke:

I'll take a push on Indy. I don't think Wentz is good. I he reminds me of um, do you think do you think the head coach is good? What's his name? Right, Greg? Oh, I do think Frank Greg is good. I don't know why I think that it's just in my head is like I can't think of a reason why he's good. Because he outdueled

Michael Marcangelo:

Brady.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, it was nice face. Sure, sure. And he's good and all but he's kind of a tool at the same time like when he wrote that didn't he? Like write a book about how he want us you're well against like Bill Belichick and it seems kind of lame to do that when you wouldn't one and against a guy who's won like a billion he's a decent he's a decent coach. But I think when sermons me a little bit of like when marquel foltz got drafted and they started changing his jump shot, you know, I just feel like he's kind of got the yips and I don't see him coming back from that I don't think he's got the mental strength to do it or else he would have maybe done it in Philadelphia and I think like Philadelphia like bailing at the first possible opportunity is like not a good sign. I will I would usage you take the over on the Titans or the under over I got them 12 and five it's weird right? Because I feel like I do read them in the regular season because of like the personnel that they have running back but I still don't think they're gonna do anything in the playoffs again for the 30 year running I think it's gonna be like oh, let's get our let's let's use our biggest weapon and then it's the blouse so nobody you know everyone can scheme against your running now.

Michael Marcangelo:

We do have Julio now though. And if Julio is better than he was in Atlanta, the last two Yours in Tannahill is as good as he has been in the last few years.

Dave Clarke:

I think 10 is good Don't get me wrong I just don't think he's like but when you assume oh good I didn't think he was when you 12 games good and yeah I think he's in that camp I think he's in that camp that bus that I was talking about earlier with like all the quarterbacks are just gonna raise yeah he's riding shotgun with her yeah exactly he's third all similar like molds Um, and I can't explain why they're the same but they are. Okay fine. yeah cool seats at nine and a half I'm very sorry seats at nine feels high for me under I think eight games is Max for me. And it has jamis ever won nine was at one so good I feel like he did one year but he always seemed he's definitely like a consistently single digit wins quarterback so I mean, and moving on for Drew Brees is like just going to hurt you know, the system is going to be funky. The leadership is going to be different. The signals are going to be different. It's gonna be a whole thing. It's gonna they're gonna take a minute to get there find their feet. I think Jamison maybe throw less interceptions based on kind of the wordage coming out of New Orleans is kind of like no no, we fixed them. And like I do think he's got a better coach.

Michael Marcangelo:

He's gonna throw a lot though dude, he's had a bruise so much I mean, he's got Michael Thomas

Dave Clarke:

walking into this ready made ready made proven system that like all he has to do is like watch like it's not as if Drew Brees, was doing insane insanely athletic only Drew Brees can do this kind of stuff. He was just like the smartest guy in the room would you say for the last few years of his career? And he was just needs to come in and try to replicate that like Drew Brees just always did this simple thing really? Well, you know, and he was he had really and this is actually the opposite of genius Winston almost everywhere. He takes your razors, just like good. A good game manager, you know, a good field general. Like his guys did what they were told he like, you know, he was decent at reading defenses, but better than decent reading defenses. He was undersized. So he had to use his brain a lot. You know, like he was good at throwing the under ball. He was you know, pretty decent. The back shoulder like just dropping little dimes and by the by the out of bounds line. And I just think James has a simple job. You know, you're just a six to nine yard reception quarterback. You know, you just got to get you got to just it's dumps and it's tosses and it's flicks and it's playmaking, and you can move around a little bit. And that's all you got to do. You know, and I just don't know if he can do that. I don't know if he's the simple guy.

Michael Marcangelo:

Drew Brees was a guy that knew what throws knew when to make the throw, but at the end, he just couldn't do it. Yeah, he aged out of it. For sure. This is just a guy that he can make the throws, but he doesn't know when to or historically has not proven he does. No, that's worse though.

Dave Clarke:

I want the guy who knows the right thing to do. And maybe physically can't do it. But like at least I know. I want to know he knows what to do.

Michael Marcangelo:

Yeah, I'm still there. I want to take the under I think seven and 10 is likely from the saints this year.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, that seems fair. That seems pretty fair. It's an innovative near the end of an era. I like Drew Brees a lot. He He's like the Dwayne Wade of the NFL where he had to like compete with well back in the day at least when I was a kid because he had to compete with two huge names and Brady and Manny and but he was always like right there I think talent wise and like not really in the conversation much like D Wade until much later. So it always always kind of matched up with him a little bit in my head and

Michael Marcangelo:

I'll miss him. You just got to get more than one dude. You got to get more than one that team with that coach with that skill set you you got to get more than one.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, I think the the What do they call it targeting bounty hunting? I think that sort of derailed the whole thing. They weren't really never the same as an organization after that. But I'm pro bounty hunting so I mean we wouldn't have Dog the Bounty Hunter if we didn't have we didn't have that I think everyone should be able to hunt bounties especially NFL players because like fuck it it's a rough sport Don't let your kids play folks. Um so the Miami Dolphins I mean I'm kind of on board them I'm not sure how you're how the Patriots fans fan base are feeling about them. I think they're getting better. I think it's a little bit disturbing that they haven't come out and like said emphatically that to as their guy they have they have there's been trade rumors right they didn't really their coach said to is our guy and it's solid their coach right? He's good. I don't know Florida though. Flores isn't coach shy Flores Yeah, I always get those two confused it's probably just a little bit of racism and what I mean everyone's not everyone's got a little bit naturally built in society. Mike Come on read up on it. So it's I just love how you I just love how you spun that and I'm the bigger one Yeah, no, it was bad. I got the fuse but a split fours is a decent coach and I think the two is a good quarterback honestly. And I think that they can put some things together especially. Oh, fuck, I forgot actually they're in the same division of the bills and the bills are really good. You're gonna lose both those games and they're probably gonna lose both against the Patriots too because the Patriots not to beat the dolphins. No matter Who's on what team says for losses right there?

Michael Marcangelo:

They don't really know how to beat them in Miami all the time. That is they struggled down there historically under under Baelish. I think they'll split. Yeah, they could and they did last year.

Dave Clarke:

When did they put together play early?

Michael Marcangelo:

We play Sunday. He was late first game. that benefits the Patriots. That's here. When we play down in Florida in Miami at the end of the year. We always always do terribly because we're used to cold weather then all of a sudden we go down there and it's 100 degrees. it's humid. I'm not ready for it. I'm going to take the over. I think the Miami Dolphins are attendance 17

Dave Clarke:

that's that's picturing the Miami Dolphins logo and then the record 10 and seven next to them it's difficult for my imaginations to comprehend but that maybe is just because they've never really been good in my lifetime. It's just the ones i think i think the Patriots have a huge advantage if they're playing very first game the seasons that the Patriots can be better prepared coming from the offseason and the dolphins. I can see I definitely see what you're saying with the going to a fucking Miami summer nights from like the dead of winter in Foxborough and then like they're all used to it and you're not I that makes a lot of sense. Um, and it's I'm glad it exists because it's probably the only term the only matchup I can think of where I've heard that it works in the opposite, because most of the time the cold weather team is winning out on like Homecourt advantages home field advantages. I don't see it I can't I their nine out there and I went to I think they're nine in a trainee under? Yeah, I am. It's still the dolphins. And also like, they'd seems like they have a tough start to the year. Because if they have to pay the bills in any way early, that's going to be that's going to be messy for them. Because the bills are just a much, much better version of them basically, at this point. All right. Let's take a look at the LA chargers who you think are good, and I'm not so sure. So talk me into it. Why are they winning more than nine and a half games?

Michael Marcangelo:

Yeah, I just think that Justin Herbert is that much better now and then they're actually building the team the offense around him, as opposed to where he just filled in for tyrod Taylor, who's long was punctured, you know, five minutes before the game last year. And then they kind of just figured it out as they went. Hey, when that happens, if Keenan Allen stays healthy if Austin eckler is healthy,

Dave Clarke:

he's on my fitness ETV better fuck stay healthy.

Michael Marcangelo:

I think that that's a really good offense. And, you know, the push the Chiefs last year, they pushed Brady in the Bucs last year and now with one more year of actually preparing i think i think that Herbert is is ready to accept you know the challenge so, I mean again I had them attendance seven This is not huge, but it's overnight at athletes.

Dave Clarke:

I feel like I've heard the argument of like they almost won about a lot of different teams as well they almost won that game they almost won that game and I used to make it about the bears like the bears two seasons ago we will ask a lot of us but like three points. And I thought in the following season we were going to go in and like win. Because we got a little bit better we can like edge out those like last three points like figure out a way to win. I feel like you guys were doing it with the Pats against the Seahawks and that first game the season last year you were like we almost won the and the almost one argument is like it's still an L and I just think like we're talking about wins and losses. You know, I just heard you describe to me a team that does not fucking get it done. So I'm gonna take the under

Michael Marcangelo:

I mean, so just knowing what we know now about the charges right there yet their first game against the Washington football team. Yeah. So I think that's a win. Second, secondary is the Cowboys. I think that's a win. Now no. Third weeks against the chiefs. I think that's a loss. So the tune one yeah. And they got the Raiders when three and one watt lost the browns, green two. I think they beat the Ravens. So now they're foreign to I don't know about that. Okay. Then the Patriots. Honestly, like that's again we can lives. Thanksgiving away wins. Like get denied. Stolen is five and two rows into this murderer's row. Eagles mega winner. Vikings. They could win the Steelers. Now. Broncos, Bengals giants. Okay, yeah, they might get tonight when they finish off against the Texans, the Broncos and the Raiders. I just I just gave you seven wins.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, they might get to nine but the lines nine and a half and I just don't seem to get to 10 I did all that research and right. Yeah, you know what? He did? He talked me into it. I think you can find him when I definitely do. I think a couple of really big wins though. You know if they're taking wins off the Ravens and the Patriots. That's big. I would love to see them upset the Chiefs but I don't think I'd be listening to their trash. So Oh, yes, I remember you thinking this. Cool, but I'm excited to hear your thoughts on it. Moving up into the Big Kahuna. And then England Patriots are at nine and a half according to the Vegas bookmakers. I'm kidding, I'm just telling you right now I'm taking you over on that. I think. I think with the Cam Newton issue, as I spelled out pretty clearly in the previous show was going to be a problem. I think they did the exact right it was weird how they did it. I get that, as you know, is weird that they like let him play out the preseason, and he looks good kinda and he, whatever. We all we've litigated this enough. But the fact that they declared a starter i think is good for you guys. I think Mac look good. Yeah, um, you know, serviceable, and I think he'll do exactly what Bill Belichick tells them to do. And I think it'll execute. I think we'll have some weird moments. But the old man's got a few tricks up his non sleeves left, I think and I think getting that offense together and just declaring a leader going into the season just saying fuck all that committee stuff. Get this guy out of here. We picked our man and divorcing himself from the inevitable speculation of the the camera guy on the on day one patriots vs. Dolphins in Gillette Stadium. Yep, the camera guys easiest job in the world of Cam Newton still on the field if he's on the bench. I mean, he just has to stay on Cam Newton. And every now and again, they're going to cut to cut over to Cam Newton and Al Michaels and Chris Calder if they're gonna be like, well, if Mac doesn't get it done here, this man here is waiting in the wings and like then they're going to cut to a whole highlight package of his like of his stuff the previous season. And it'll be short, because he wasn't very good. But you get what I'm saying? Like I think I feel did a good job of just being like, once we pick the other guy goes and I think I gave he probably only could have done that how he picked Mac but I think it's a I think it was a good decision. I don't think Cam Newton was getting you guys 10 wins. I think Matt Jones can What do you think?

Michael Marcangelo:

So have you ever had the metal? Evidence six? I don't know if that's enough to you to get to the playoffs or anything like that. I thought that they were 12 and five win team with cam I thought that their team, their chances of winning was better with cam I will die on that hill. I was it doesn't matter. There's no way to know there's no No, no, no, no, no. They removed him. I think that offense is exponentially better than it was last year and they still won seven games and that defense is better than it was last year and they still won seven games. So and they have the 30s you schedule the league this year? Because that they were the third they were they were third their division.

Dave Clarke:

Right. So you're gonna lose both games to the bills.

Michael Marcangelo:

I know. You don't think so? Now we were I mean, again, if cam just slides doesn't fumble, we win that game.

Dave Clarke:

Almost. Almost win, which counts for

Michael Marcangelo:

about as much as a loss almost what the quarterback does no longer there because everyone realized that's what he does besides me, apparently. Yeah, I think they split. I actually think that they lose the buffalo at home here. Are they did they beat buffalo? a buffalo? Wow. We should be very uncharacteristic. But yeah, a lot of insects.

Dave Clarke:

Okay. I think 11 and six is fine. I was thinking 10. But sure. Well, we'll go the official over undershelf will go live in six bucket there your team Seahawks at 10 I think is Hi. Hi,

Michael Marcangelo:

how are you? Hi. Because that feels like it's a pretty good place for them to be. I mean, I think that feels like I am actually Hi.

Dave Clarke:

I don't know, I know that question was rhetorical. But I am wide students

Michael Marcangelo:

don't always want to ask that question. But I think yeah, I think 11 is their basement. Right. And so I had them a call from five.

Dave Clarke:

I mean, I just didn't I you know not to name drop, but I did just spend a little time at the Seattle Seahawks and their stadium. And I'll tell you I smell failure in the air. Now. I'm just kidding. I just like, aren't you just like, aren't they also RANS for you at this point. Like, I just feel like every season. They seem like they're going to be X amount. Good. And they always are. I mean, last last year, last year there wasn't they go 12 and four.

Michael Marcangelo:

Yeah, but they didn't do shit with it. You know what I mean? You kind of knew that they weren't going to I'm not saying they don't want to serve all I'm asking. I'm telling you that they're going to win more than 10 games.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, I just think like, I think the division they're in is a little stronger than it looks. I think that the Rams are a very good team. And I think they're, I think like we talked about earlier, they're better now at Stafford I think that Russell Wilson's stranglehold on that division is starting to loosen a little bit. I think that the 40 Niners are gonna be better than people are giving him credit for this year. I can have a great running game. I think that they have options at quarterback now. And like the I think both of those guys can be good Trey Lance or Jimmy G. And I know that we've talked to Jimmy g thing to death. Um, but I think either of those guys can win them games. And I think that I just think and especially after the speculation with Russell Wilson and all this stuff that happened in the offseason, I'm not sure it's hard senate anymore. And I understand that grade school players and you know, no disrespect to the DK Mac OS of the world. Where the title lockets in the world of the world. They I understand he's got weapons and I understand he's an elite QB. I wanted him in Chicago. This is something about this is some compared to what he knew. I don't want to get argumentative. Another, we're just talking here is talking sports. Just a couple little buddy.

Michael Marcangelo:

Every year since 2017, which by the way, was the last year that they had less than 10 wins. They've gotten better. Nine and 710 611 and 512 and four, and you think that this is the year that they do not win 10 games? By the way, they've only not won 10 games once since 2012. So in a decade, yeah. I mean, Mike, I hear you're saying,

Dave Clarke:

totally get what you're saying. I totally I understand that the you know, the the evidence backs up that they'll probably win names. Just got a hunch, man, I just got a hunch. And I just, I mean, look, the numbers don't lie. I agree. Like they're they've obviously been a winning team over the past few seasons. We've seen you know,

Michael Marcangelo:

10 but few thoughts a few. It's not 310

Dave Clarke:

the last handful of seasons if you got big hands, I think. I think it's just a handful of seasons. They've been good. Just something about them. They seem on the downslope to me if they were stuck,

Michael Marcangelo:

everything that I just told you indicates the exact opposite.

Dave Clarke:

I think you're I think you're a slave to the figures. I think just because something hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not going to and I think their divisions tougher than then you think it is. And then people think it is. You got honestly, if you think it's that much of a lock, you should bet it. You should bet it. You should bet the over on on sodden Seahawks,

Michael Marcangelo:

I'll bet to run the Seahawks.

Dave Clarke:

And also, you know, if the other 10 when the other 10 win team is the Green Bay Packers, then there's three teams at 10 and a half. And I feel like they're getting a lot of these teams are getting, they're getting given some games here. The Packers at 10 and a hat. Listen, I mean, we disagree on the Seahawks, like totally fine. And you're absolutely right that like their recent history. And I say recently in the current scheme of things in the grand scheme of the NFL. You know, it's an older version station. They're not though But yeah, sure. Listen, I got a soft spot for him. I was just there hanging out at the at the stadium being buddies with all the players and I hate to report back. I just didn't smell winning in the air my friend. I just didn't smell it. You mentioned that. Yeah, and and if there's one thing I can smell its championship DNA, like a sniffer dogs right. Now listen, I mean, you're probably right, but like fuck it. I don't think they're gonna do that good. Moving on the Green Bay Packers. Over 10 and a half. You're thinking they're gonna win more games after that whole crazy offseason with Aaron Rodgers below Likud here.

Michael Marcangelo:

I think yeah, I think he wants to go elsewhere. And I think he wants teams to think that he's better than he is or that he's still as good as he used to be. So yeah, I think that he balls out. I just think that they have four wins built in.

Dave Clarke:

Are you just doing this because you said they were gonna be good. Last year he got burned.

Michael Marcangelo:

I was kinda I mean, I could say that Aaron Rodgers was on his way out last year, and I was almost ready, but he played pretty well at VP. I think they have five wins. Now. I'm sorry, Dave, but they're gonna sweep the line. No,

Dave Clarke:

listen, I mean, here's the thing. Here's the thing. Here's the thing. I look at them. I regard myself emotionally I know what I feel when I look at them. I say fuck them. They gotta suck this year. And I know I understand logically all that stuff. I can't if I'm actually putting money on this. I can't bet the under on Aaron Rodgers in 10 and a half games I just can't you know, it's just not it's just not smart money. As much as I'd like to say they won't do it. And I'm hoping for an implosion. I'm not ever going to actually put my money where my mouth is on that. So like you've already really taught me to take me over on them because it's just like, there's still a fucking Packers, they're probably going to be the best ways I get it. I knew you're gonna say Go fuck yourself. Alright. So the Cleveland Browns a 10 and a half. I would take the over on that. Yeah, I think they're gonna be the best team in their division. Oh, my, um, I think they have I think Odell Beckham is going to come back and play really well. That might be because I drafted him last night and then missing the point fantasy league, but I do think he's gonna come back and play really well. I think Baker's good. I think he's getting better. There blocking is great. They believe in themselves even though they're the Cleveland Browns, which is very strange, but true. And I think yeah, I think they're gonna win 12 games.

Michael Marcangelo:

Yeah, I get the 12 and five is perfect. So I'll take the over I think that team now if they don't, if they don't match their win total from last year, everybody's healthy. There's a big problem. I don't think Baker gets his extension. I think that a lot is riding on this season for the Cleveland Browns. So next, we have the 40 Niners at 10 and a half wins. Now, I don't know who the starting quarterbacks tend to be. I think it's gonna be Jimmy g for you know at least eight games and then trailheads might come in because Jimmy's gonna get hurt like inevitably always does. So I just have a really hard time putting or anyone raking the 49 as a head of the Seattle Seahawks, so I thinkI'm gonna take the under I think it's gonna be 10 I think 10 wins 10 and seven is a perfect place for them. The Rams again in that division, I guess people in Vegas out there really think that the NFC West is the division to be in in the NFL this year. But the Rams and the 40 Niners at 10 and a half wins is is ridiculous. We had the Browns for years and the Rams at 10 and a half wins. Do you i mean i as i said i think that it's really hard to have the 40 Niners and Rams ranked ahead of the Seahawks for win so for the for United's of the ramps I'm taking the under well how okay for years under Rams over I grams are 11 and six.

Dave Clarke:

Well, how many how many ones do you think the Seahawks are gonna have? Like? 13? Well, so you think they'll do worse than Seahawks but the over them the Vegas line? I think I think the Rams I think the Rams are 12 win team. Clubs. Were kind of right there there abouts. I would take the over with the Rams also. So same diff.

Michael Marcangelo:

So does that mean that you even McVeigh as a head coach, because you saw staff in your division for like literally the last 10 years?

Dave Clarke:

I just think they have great personnel. I think they're stacked like I think they have a lot of good. A lot of good players. And I think it's a really good fit. I don't necessarily know Stafford's elite, but he's a rhythm guy. And I think they can get him into a rhythm over there with the guys they have around them. And I think he's going to be better, I think is gonna be his best statistical year and I think you agree. So I think if he has his best statistical year in Los Angeles, I think they went to all games. That's gonna be a pretty fucking good year from a quarterback. And I'm actually happy for him like it because honestly, he was withering on the vine in Detroit. Like most things are wanted to do. But yeah, I mean, hopefully it is good. I'm I'm trying to get tickets to the bears Rams game this Sunday. They're expensive but bears are in town playing the Rams so I hope the Rams aren't this good, but you got to go see them? No, I know. I'm trying. I'm only I'm on the game day app. Trying to get the needs the tickets the game but anyway, um, yeah, the Rams I think our 12 win team. I think the 40 Niners or an 11 win team and I think the Seahawks are nine win team. So I'm taking over over under those in those three green bay I'm taking you over because he talked me into it. This is interesting where the Buffalo Bills for you because they haven't been 11 nine. I see the over all day with that.

Michael Marcangelo:

I see the over a 12 I see that 13 mature Yeah, yeah. I mean, I mean, I could be wrong again. I am I am biases my division I but I mean, I'm pretty fair about everyone else in the division, including the Patriots. I think that the bills, everything rides on Josh Allen, and I don't know that he's good enough to be the case yet. I but I do think if they told him 513 before the show that he's proved herself as a top five NFL quarterback. I think elevens too low. Because I honestly don't know if 11 wins gets you into the playoffs in the AFC because it barely did lash briefly and we've added again,

Dave Clarke:

act at the top. I mean, the next three are the next four, three out of the last four a CTS we're gonna about to talk about so. Yeah, I mean, I think it's gonna be the over but I agree that like it's if it is the over and they do win more than living games, it's actually tough for me to find that for it's tougher to find for losses on their schedule with how they're set up. Which is why I'm taking over with them, but the Patriots are definitely a team that could take a couple wins off them. You know, I think they could win both games like potentially one upset and then one win in New England work that wouldn't necessarily be an upset. Um, and then. Yeah, I think so. I think Josh Allen's that guy I mean, I had him on my fantasy team last year he was he did fucking great so I I would take probably the over on that and that's an easy one. The Baltimore Ravens I'm excited to talk about this one with you because I I think elevens perfect for them. I do I and I also think that like, I know you don't rate their quarterback, Lamar, but he's pretty good. I mean, he puts up numbers you know, and they I think your main criticism of them is that he's not going to take you to a Super Bowl right like that. You know, he's always craps out in the playoffs so it's been your biggest thing. He's a good regular season quarterback, don't you think?

Michael Marcangelo:

Yeah. I Alright, so I don't think he can really defense i don't i don't think he makes the throws. Now. That's what I've been stripped out. I have historically seen if that changes, then yeah, that team is a 13 week team easily. But based on what I've seen so far, I have them at tenant seven. I don't They're trash. But I think I'm gonna take the under of the 11 games I first of all, I think that the best team in that division yes is the browns. And yeah, so they'll be the second best team but they're gonna they're not gonna make playoffs. I can tell you that.

Dave Clarke:

You think I mean, just because the AFC so stack they're not going to get that wildcard spot. that's gonna happen it could I agree that the best team in the divisions rounds also. And then they're also going to beat each other up again. And Lamar is so good at getting COVID like, he's so good at it. He's done it twice. It's like he's almost as good at getting COVID as he is like running with a football in his hands. So he could semi he's not gonna get vaccinated, apparently, so he's gonna sit probably at least two it's 10 days, right for, for COVID protocol. So like that could take up to games, you know, like, depending on like, what their schedule looks like. So

Michael Marcangelo:

it gets a twice they screw that they said,

Dave Clarke:

I mean, he's had it twice already.

Michael Marcangelo:

I don't know how many times you're likely to be able to get it before you get it for free, or like a free sub or something. But I hope he keeps his card is the thing I'll say, and it really has nothing to do with logic, but it's just you know, you had last time like your gut. My gut says that in the division where three teams made the playoffs last year, only one's gonna make it this year. And my pick is the Browns for the AFC North.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, I can see it. I wouldn't bet it. The Ravens over and Rubio Stay away from me because I feel like both are realistically very possible. Both 10 wins and 12 wins are both realistically very possible. If I was to have to pick one gun in my head, I probably I probably take the under well that Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 wins. I mean, they're a cheat code this team I think this isn't a lot at the over I think it's not I don't think it's even a question they're stacked in every part of their I mean the very obvious two best teams in the NFL are them in the Chiefs which will obviously Taiwan next because they have the highest over they have the highest learn at 12 and a half. But come on. I mean, that's a lot put put your house payment on a right now. Unless, unless fucking Tom Brady. Oh, tell tell tell. Tell. Tell. Tell. I mean, there's no there's no evidence to say that he's not going to be playing like people have stopped even saying like there's there was a good seven year stretch of this is the year he falls off a cliff. This is the year he falls off a cliff This is that he's now entered it. I mean, you can talk about for Tom Brady all day for it. But he's now in the second era of, of main rivals. You know what I mean? Like, he went from being one of the three best guys in the league with Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, like we talked about earlier to one of the three best guys in the league kids, Patrick mahomes. Just like generationally good as we can already see. He like he's got an arch nemesis and like three different areas of football, and he's still playing in a very high level. He's got great weapons, and I you know, I think it's an absolute lock that they went more than 12 games like I don't think you disagree.

Michael Marcangelo:

I got the over it's 14 and three. A lot of people say that they could set that they could go 17 an hour. I don't know that that happens. I actually think that they might lose the game early.

Dave Clarke:

Would that hurt? Would that hurt? If you saw him do it? and win the Superbowl with a different team? Or would you be happy for him?

Michael Marcangelo:

If he went 20? Oh, yeah, right. I would be so pissed off. And so happy. Like, I would just I would be I would hate myself and love it. So yeah, I don't know what I would do. I don't want to talk about those emotions. But 14 to three feels feels right. feel right, Brian.

Dave Clarke:

Last but not least, I also think this is a lock. I think I would take the over with the Kansas City Chiefs. Also, who beats them who beats them if they're 12 and a half? who beats them four times to take the under? Yeah, but who beats them four times? I go like, you know, what's where they're four losses coming from taking under? I don't see. I mean, do we want to take the time look into Yeah, sure. Okay, let's go through the whole thing.

Michael Marcangelo:

Do you have a Do you have the records, I just might have to do a big old big market by and race a tie. Like

Dave Clarke:

I feel there's I don't think that there's any strength of schedule. You're about to read out to me, that tells me they're gonna win less than 12 and a half games. But I'm excited to hear it.

Michael Marcangelo:

Are we ready? Yes. They opened against Cleveland. They're winning that Baltimore. We just talked about why they're winning. I think it's very real possibility that they lose to Cleveland. However, I will just say that they went okay. So they be Cleveland at Baltimore. The next is the Chargers that they will split one of those games. So do you think it's I think it might be early. I think they're three now. Right now. Okay. Well and so we'll go with you three now cuz you said you couldn't find four losses. League for the Eagles when they find out week five the bills. Say for one, I'd say for one at this point. Week Six. The Washington football team. Five and one. Tight for six and one. Oh, giants. Seven was Packers. Seven into Raiders. eaten two cowboys. You can three guided to guided, practice the Broncos head into Raiders. Again

Dave Clarke:

Oh the other division Raiders terrible 11 and two

Michael Marcangelo:

chargers. That's the split 11 and three. Steelers. 12 and three, sorry, Leah, Bengals 13, three, Broncos, 14 and three.

Dave Clarke:

And I think one of those is a swing, you could swing one of those to get them their fourth loss. But I don't think they're winning. They're not losing four games out of those that schedule. It is a tougher schedule. I thought though, they start tough. It's going to be determined. Basically, you're going to know if you want it to last that bet within the first five days is probably the season.

Michael Marcangelo:

Yep. If they come out of that, that those first five years at anything, anything less than 441, then we're I think we're on track for a four loss season.

Dave Clarke:

I would feel better about betting the over on Tampa Bay than I would bet in the over on Kansas City. For the record listeners at home.

Michael Marcangelo:

Yeah, it's a Tampa Bay is a pretty, they also have a pretty tough schedule. But we don't just talk about if you don't want

Dave Clarke:

to. Well, they're gonna have a pretty tough schedule. They're the Superbowl champions, they should have a pretty tough schedule and they, you know, they deserve it. They deserve to get beat up. But I also think like, I don't know, Tom rage knows how to win dude. It's just it's hard. Alright, dude, let's do it. Let's do the same thing. Fuck it. Last thing we'll do is go through the third division. I'll do it again. Just we I mean, this is people's money. They're gonna he's gonna take our sage advice and go put their hard earned cash on these over 100 site. We might as well do the work.

Michael Marcangelo:

Right. So tell me about your schedule. Week One. Obviously Dallas Cowboys want to know you just go right after but so you think that the Cowboys have a chance to beat the Chiefs? But they

Dave Clarke:

won't be I did I took that back I put it back at nine and three right when we're doing that and then two whatever it was, I was I thought about doing it but then I had already just it would have taken away the legitimacy of the whole thing attached to you. Okay, Cowboys,

Michael Marcangelo:

want to know, Falcons? tuna, Rams tune ones patriots three and one and if there's ever again the dollar checks in the coach up for it's gonna be that one but I think I tuned to it. Let's give him the patriots who forget? Yeah, two and two. Oh my dolphins. Three into eagles. Four into bears. five states. Six into Washington football to seven into giants. Eight into Colts. Nine into Falcons. 10 into Bill's 10 and three saints 11 and three, Panthers. Tone three, jets. 13. Three. Panthers. 14 and three.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, no, they're good. And even I even I was pretty liberal hitting out losses for them too, I think at the start. So yeah, they're I mean, they could go 15 and one. I want to say don't be surprised or 15 to two. I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised I have the old records still stuck in my head. I gotta shake him out. All right, well, that does it for missing the points, records prediction over under gambling. gamble responsibly. big gamble. aware.org. Have a lovely rest of your weekend and we're so happy football's back. And listen to obviously our interview that's coming up this week. That'll be in the show notes. And we got lots of great regular season NFL content coming your way. Well, thanks for coming. Have a nice rest of your night.