Patriots Season Forecast with Karen Guregian

Welcome And Super Bowl Hangover

SPEAKER_00 0:12

All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Missing the Point. We are on the cusp of the NFL season, which means that I had to bring in my favorite guest of all time. She is an ultimate friend of the show. She is for Mass Live Sports. Miss Karen Gregan, how are you?

SPEAKER_04 0:28

I am well. I'm looking forward to yet another season.

SPEAKER_00 0:34

I feel you know, it's we were talking obviously pre-show. It's it's been a it's been a long offseason. Um, I think it's I still I don't know about you, probably not, because you're you're with them every single day. I still have to remind myself that this team was in the Super Bowl last year, right? Because it nothing about the off-season and the preparation is that of a Super Bowl runner-up, or am I am I like off off base there?

SPEAKER_04 1:00

In some ways you're right, I would say. But um you have to remember though that they weren't expected to get there.

SPEAKER_01 1:10

Right.

SPEAKER_04 1:11

And um, you know, this was supposed to be part of a a you know, when Rabel took over, a rebuild process, you know, it's not like an overnight sensation, which was kind of what they were, but yeah, you know, it it takes a while to build your roster and build a team that is went from being back-to-back for-win teams to a contender. So, I mean, it happened really fast last year, um, and there's a lot of reasons for it. But I think the thing that should make fans feel good is that they didn't like sit on their laurels and and just um you know, short sort of say, hey, we we got to the Super Bowl, we're good. No, they they had a pretty active offseason in terms of bringing in AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs and Kevin Byrd, and so they knew, you know, even I mean it's it's like they knew getting to the Super Bowl, they needed to be, you know, and losing as they did, they needed to get better. And I I mean, I thought it was good to see that that they went out and you know upgraded several positions, and that's not to say that they don't still have holes because they do.

SPEAKER_00 2:47

Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_04 2:48

That's not to say that they're not in the embroiled in the middle of a contract war with Christian Gonzalez, because they are. Um, but as I said, I think at the outset, their goal, particularly

Expectations Shift After The Run

SPEAKER_04 3:05

via free agency in trade, was a good one.

SPEAKER_00 3:10

You outlined a lot of what I want to talk about, obviously.

SPEAKER_04 3:13

Sorry about that.

SPEAKER_00 3:14

No, no, but but um I think the the like the key points are last year, it f it as you've mentioned, and everyone agrees, everything was ahead of schedule. 14 wins, Drake playing like an MVP level quarterback, Rabel changing the culture, and they ultimately get to the Super Bowl. So I'm gonna start off with the question that last year I did not think I was gonna be asking you because since the iteration of this show, whenever you're on in September, the whole goal is Karen to talk Mike off the cliff. So we're gonna have a little role reversal here. Uh does anything short of getting back to the Super Bowl feel disappointing now to Patriot fans? Or should it?

SPEAKER_04 3:57

Well, I I it's I can't speak for fans, but uh I can guess. Um, but I don't know, maybe I'm too practical and too logical. Um I would I would amend that to say uh short of getting in the playoffs and advancing around is kind of where I would have it. I'm not gonna again, I know how they get to the Super Bowl last year, and the road is much more difficult uh this year. Yeah. The schedule is you know brutally tough. Uh and again, that's not to say they're not gonna win their fair share. I highly doubt they're gonna win 14 games. Um I am not uh even though the AFC isn't uh uh that strong, uh it's still gonna be tough for them to to uh you know be the AFC representative once again. Not impossible, but again, they're a known entity now. They're not catching anyone by surprise. They've had time to study Drake and the offense, and and and it's it's different when you when you have a kind of a target or bullseye on your back. And um, and it's still a relatively young team hasn't been through the wars really. Um so uh again, I'm I'm not I won't be disappointed and think it's a bad year if they don't get back to the Super Bowl. Uh I mean historically a lot of runner-ups don't even get to the postseason. I mean, it's just that the hangover is so tough, you know. But um I do I do think they're a better team than last year's group, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's gonna translate into more wins.

SPEAKER_00 6:09

So you just opened up like potentially two quick forms. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right. Well, this this always happens with us.

SPEAKER_04 6:17

Sorry, I should just keep my answer short so I don't have to go off in a 50 tangent, so I don't answer all your questions at once.

SPEAKER_00 6:24

Oh no. You just gave me thinking, and I start droughting things down. So uh it sounds like you think that making the Super Bowl last year made this offseason harder for the Patriots because expectations changed overnight.

SPEAKER_04 6:39

Like, is is that is that how they see it as well, do you think I think what they see, again, is totally different than what fancy or even what journalists see. I think they they you know they believe, you know, they saw what believing in a head coach, adjusting and adapting to a culture, uh you know, uh doing what they were coached to do, and how you know how that, you know, the winds that kept coming was like proof positive that their way was a good way.

SPEAKER_01 7:24

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 7:25

And and it was reinforcing to them. And I think they believed they should have been in the Super Bowl. Um, they had their taste, and now it's like unfinished business to them, you know, particularly the the returning players. And uh, you know, like you know, Drake has been preaching it uh since all off season of you know you get a taste and and you know getting to the Super Bowl doesn't happen every happen instantly overnight every year. So I think they're driven to get back and

Drake May’s Next Leap In Control

SPEAKER_04 8:15

and they'll see how far that drive takes them.

SPEAKER_00 8:19

You you this is so perfect. You bring up Drake, right? So what does the encore look like in your opinion, right? Like after the season that he had last year, what's the next step? And is there actually another level for him to reach in year three?

SPEAKER_04 8:35

Well, the coaches certainly think so, and that's not necessarily gonna show itself in touchdown pass more touchdown passes or a better completion percentage, and his 72% was outrageous. Uh you know, especially with a line that really uh didn't block that well toward the end. Um but all that being said, I think we're they want to see improvement, and we will see improvement is is more in terms of Drake and his mastery of the offense. I mean, last year he was just he was basically learning again his second offense and his second year.

SPEAKER_01 9:28

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 9:28

He was trying to to weigh through the complexities of Josh McDaniel's offense. And again, he it was more, I don't want to say like he was thinking it out or thinking it through, but it wasn't something that was like quick and rotten like the back of his hand, right?

SPEAKER_01 9:48

Yep.

SPEAKER_04 9:49

The plays and and and now I would say it's more like the back of his hand. And what they are hoping, um, they want him to take more control of the offense, meaning, um, so Josh will call a play in his helmet, and Drake will get to the line, and not comparing him to Brady, but this is what Brady, why Brady, one of the reasons why he was so great, he would get to the line, know the play that they was called, he would look out at a defense and know instantly, instantly, is that play gonna work or is that play not gonna work?

SPEAKER_01 10:30

Yep.

SPEAKER_04 10:31

And then the next instant, if he didn't think it was gonna work, he would call something he thought would work. That's where they want Drake May to be be this year. And again, it's not that he didn't audible, but I don't think it was an every single play deal, you know, where he's gonna go to line, look at the line, and know if he has to call something else. Or if he he, you know, to be quicker with picking up blitzes and protections and things like that. I mean, in Seattle, the the Super Bowl, they had blitzers coming in completely untouched. And part of that is on Drake for not seeing it or not reading it. So they're hoping in year three, and again, a second year in Josh McDaniel's offense, he will have better command and control of what's going on.

SPEAKER_00 11:34

So given that they want him to take more control and they're giving him more command, in your opinion, just based on what you've seen at training camp, um, is he or do they feel like he's already at a point where he can like he can cover up uh mistakes or other roster weaknesses, or is he still, you know, a little too s too early in that?

SPEAKER_04 11:57

You're stealing something I'm gonna write about next week. Um I think that's something we have to see. Because you know, um obviously, and I'll bring his name up again. Uh Tom Brady was like the great equalizer, right? I mean he could make a uh so so roster great.

SPEAKER_00 12:27

Because he was chicken salad out of chicken, you know.

SPEAKER_04 12:30

Yeah, right. So if the defense is giving up uh over 20 points a game, Drake will score over 30. And that's how you how he's gonna make up for a deficiency. So again, I I think in theory uh that makes sense, uh, but we'll have to see see that play out.

SPEAKER_00 12:56

And uh because there's so many more things. I've uh just just so you know, I've read probably all of the articles that you that you've written since the draft and compiled my questions.

SPEAKER_04 13:08

Did you have a good nap after you did it?

SPEAKER_00 13:10

Like I love this stuff. I look forward to this all year.

SPEAKER_04 13:14

Um okay, what did I do? What did I say? What did I write?

SPEAKER_00 13:19

Is Drake is Drake already good enough to be the best player on a Super Bowl winning team? I'm not asking you if you think he will be at some point in time in this career, but right now, do you think he is?

SPEAKER_04 13:33

Are you asking me, is he good enough to lead uh a Super Bowl winning team?

SPEAKER_00 13:38

Is he good enough to be the best player on a Super Bowl winning team?

SPEAKER_04 13:43

Oh yeah. Yep.

SPEAKER_00 13:46

Okay, I love that.

SPEAKER_04 13:48

I do think that, for sure.

SPEAKER_00 13:50

Um we've talked about you've well, we kind of danced around AJ Brown. So uh I think yes, I'm excited. Yes, he's probably one of the best wide receivers, best names that we've had in a long time, although I I do think fans will look back on what Stefan Diggs did last year years from now and say, wow, like we didn't realize how good that actually was. Um, and because we always complained about not having a number one. Uh, but you you wrote about AJ Brown's knee being one of the biggest questions facing the team. So after seeing him through camp, how worried should I be?

SPEAKER_04 14:29

The knee looked, I mean, he looked great. He looked fine. Uh he actually got bet looked better as camp progressed. That's good. Uh but I but I think it again, it's more like him being comfortable with the offense, too, and him, you know, connecting with you know, May in a in a way that's again that I'll use that word again, kind of second nature, like they'll have you know, forming a chemistry and a bond, and kind of knowing both of them instinctively. If something happens, you know, where AJ's gonna go or what AJ's gonna do, or where he likes the ball, or what side, you know what I'm saying? All of those little details that go into great quarterback receiver uh duos and relationships, it it forms with time. And I think with time, and we saw it with Romeo Dobbs too. Romeo Dobbs looked terrible early. Um, but now I mean the last couple weeks of practice and I mean he was a stud. I mean, he was really, really good. Contested catch guy. I mean, it was like jaw-droppingly good. So um, what was your question? Um, you're talking about AJ Brown's knee.

SPEAKER_01 15:57

Yep.

SPEAKER_04 15:58

It looked fine to this point. Uh, but again, those are if you have and he supposedly has like degenerative degenerative knee issues, and I think sometimes it they're swelling, and sometimes they have to drain fluid, but again, there's been no evidence of that.

SPEAKER_00 16:23

Okay, so that is cheery.

SPEAKER_04 16:25

Are you off that ledge?

SPEAKER_00 16:26

Yeah, that talked me off the ledge. Um, but you mentioned

AJ Brown Health And Receiver Chemistry

SPEAKER_00 16:30

you mentioned uh the chemistry. And I want to like I obviously want to ask you a little bit more about that, but uh I'm still snake-bitten from Ocho Cinco in 2011 because and I know that's a that's a far-fetched reference, but he's one of the best training camp players I've ever seen. I mean, he just couldn't get on the field. I don't think that's gonna happen with AJ Brown, but how much should we look into AJ and Drake's development uh and chemistry in you know padded practices as opposed to the first four weeks of the season?

SPEAKER_04 17:05

Well, obviously it's something to keep an eye on, and the other thing is geez, opposing defenses are going to know where Drake wants to go with the football. But the difference this year, or the difference with that happening, is Drake has some good other options, other places to go with the football. So if you shadow AJ Brown or devote two guys to him, I mean, that might spring Romeo, that might spring Pop Douglas. I mean, and again, these are good players, and and the the real hope is that Drake won't force the ball to AJ, especially if he's double covered. Uh, because ultimately, if a safety's shading over toward AJ, someone else is either gonna have single coverage or be pretty well open for Drake to hit. And again, that was the beauty of Tom Brady throwing to the open guy. Uh, it was uh largely the beauty of Drake May last year, throwing to the open guy. So uh as long as he's not forcing 100 balls to AJ Brown every game, uh, I think I think it'll it'll work out just fine.

SPEAKER_00 18:36

Does he still look like a true number one receiver, not a Patriots number one? But based on what you've seen, like does he have it to be a number one, like a top, let's just say 15 years old.

SPEAKER_04 18:46

Put it this way, it we saw a lot of red zone work and in joint practices, and he was virtually uncoverable in the red zone.

SPEAKER_00 18:58

So is that because they're you do you think their deep like their defense can't cover him, or because he's awesome, he's great.

SPEAKER_04 19:07

I mean he's he makes catches. I mean, one-handed catches, contested catches. Uh I mean uh he's just really good at tracking and getting and getting his body in position to pull in the football.

SPEAKER_00 19:28

I love that. We haven't had that really since Gronk to that degree.

SPEAKER_04 19:33

Moss. Moss Gronk.

SPEAKER_00 19:35

Moss Gronk, yeah.

SPEAKER_04 19:37

Um and you know when you have Drake May, one of the most accurate passers in the league, um, and if Drake knows exactly where he needs to put it accurately to make to pull the playoff, uh again, that all bodes well.

SPEAKER_00 20:02

I agree. Uh, this this is trending up. This is no longer a ledge backing off thing. This is a maybe I'm gonna need to cool my jets type of thing.

SPEAKER_04 20:11

Uh well, were you like optimistic or really pessimistic?

SPEAKER_00 20:18

This year or last year?

SPEAKER_04 20:19

This year. Like heading in.

SPEAKER_00 20:22

Uh heading into training camp, once we had AJ Brown, I was I I said on the show, I was like, 11 wins would be great. And I don't think that's a step back. Um I just the one thing I'm worried about is still the offensive line because I don't know enough about the improvements that they've made. I have to see it in real real time. And another thing that you that you mentioned, but I don't want to get to it yet, but we'll we can just say it. It's they're top heavy.

SPEAKER_04 20:50

They do have yeah, that was my line.

SPEAKER_00 20:54

Yeah, that that that's that's come up a lot, right? It's uh they have they have 22 great players. Yeah. Then what happens like that bottom that bottom 30.

SPEAKER_04 21:06

Well, it's like here's there's a secret, and they had and it was part of their secret to success last year. Don't get hurt.

SPEAKER_00 21:12

Stay healthy, right?

SPEAKER_04 21:13

Stay healthy.

SPEAKER_00 21:15

Um but you mentioned um I think it was after your post, it was like your post-cutdown assessment, right? Like you you are bullish on the starters. Um, so am I. Uh you mentioned that you think the Patriots might have what it takes to trade scores with anybody.

SPEAKER_05 21:32

I do.

SPEAKER_00 21:34

Um, so we talked a little bit about AJ Brown, we've talked about Drake. Who who's the third receiving option?

SPEAKER_04 21:42

Well, uh, this is gonna sound odd. Well, I I mean, I don't know. There's so many. Again, um I mean, Pop Douglas in the slot, probably, but you also have Matt Collins.

SPEAKER_00 21:59

Right.

SPEAKER_04 22:00

And you know, as a big slot. Um and if you want someone to just if you want to win a track meet, you throw Kyle Williams out there and have him. Although he had the chemistry with DeVito. I'm not sure he has that with Drake May yet. Um but I I mean the when they had three receiver sets, largely it was Brown, uh Romeo Dobbs and uh Pop Douglas. Um so I think I mean maybe this is the year Pop finally, you know, really has that uh slot receiver role that Josh McDaniels has made other people very famous and wealthy over. Um so you know, maybe, maybe that's it. But I'm gonna throw another name in the well, he also has Hunter Henry. I mean, and that's kind of his go-to guy in a pinch on third down. But I'm gonna throw one more, Ramondre Stevenson. Ramondre Stevenson has had a very, very good camp, not just running the football, but catching passes from Drake. And I'm not talking about out just simple outlets or you know, when the quarterback needs to swing pass. No. He goes down the field, he's hit him deep. I think we saw it last year, too.

SPEAKER_00 23:36

We did.

SPEAKER_04 23:37

Um, he is again the defense can only cover up so many people, especially if, again, they're shading two people for for AJ Brown. It and maybe they maybe they you know, and maybe they tie up Romeo Dobbs. Maybe some teams have really two great cornerbacks, but with Pop and Mac Hollins, uh occasionally uh Kyle Williams flying down the field, but uh Hunter Henry, but I think Ramondre Stevenson is gonna be an important pass catching back as well.

SPEAKER_00 24:25

So does that mean that you think that Trevion's gonna have more rushing leadership this year? No. And he'll be really no.

SPEAKER_04 24:35

If Ramondre's the guy, he's the runner. I mean, you're gonna see Trevion. But on third downs, Trevion still hasn't proven he can pick up the the blitzer. And Ramondre's really good at basically saving the quarterback. And until they trust Trevion with doing that, Ramondre's gonna be on the field at third down.

SPEAKER_00 25:01

He's just so explosive. But I think we learned a lot about Ramandre last year, too. Like a lot of people, myself included, were very quick to say, like, Trevion's the new guy, like just give it to him. And I I said that by the way, every single week. Uh and when Ramondre was out and Trevion stepped up, I was like, this is what he could do. Uh but then Ramandre came back and looked really good. And we just I just feel like we never saw the pass catching element of his game pre-Drake May. And that could have been because we had incompetent offensive coordinators and you know that that whole thing. Um but I agree with you, Ramondre. I I think most people are sleeping on him as a casual Patriot fan.

SPEAKER_04 25:48

He was down the stretch one of their better best players last year. And he's basically in the camps, he's picked up where he's left off. And again, I'm just looking at volume of targets. Uh again, Drake is very comfortable throwing him the football. Um, I mean, it's great to have Trabion, you know, who can turn the game around in an instant in a play. Yeah, but he he still hasn't quite his his vision is a little suspect. He tends to run into tackles, you know. It's either a home run or or a two-yard loss.

SPEAKER_01 26:34

Yep.

SPEAKER_04 26:35

Um, and I think they're thinking having a full back in front of him, paving a path so he can see the hole, you know,

Offensive Line Questions Meet Seattle

SPEAKER_04 26:45

and fly through it with his out, you know, unbelievable speed, that will help him. We'll see, we'll see.

SPEAKER_00 26:53

Uh, by the way, I just want to point out I had written down, hand of God, will this be the year that Pop Douglas has a better season than training camp? And you essentially said those that that same thing because he's been one of the best training camp players of the last season. Right. Right. So we're thinking it the same way. Uh but this is what I need you to tell me. How much better, how much better is the offensive line? Is it better at all?

SPEAKER_04 27:21

In theory, yeah. But again, it's hard to they didn't play in a game. Right. You know, I mean they held up okay in the joint practices, but again, I it's hard for me to say definitively um that you know it's gonna be great with a new center, a new right, and a new right guard. Uh, I think I'm sorry, left guard. I mean the right side is great. On one who, Morgan Moses, if he stays healthy, he somehow did last year. Um, I mean that side is is solid. Will Campbell has obviously uh after uh basically being a turnstile in the Super Bowl, uh has worked has worked his butt off. Uh you know, he he elicited some help from some veteran offensive tackles. Lane Johnson has a camp of some sort in the offseason. And you know, Will was determined to try and be better. And also, you know, his knee wasn't great, so he, you know, got that uh strength in the knee, and and you know, he's looked, he's looked good, but again, we'll see. You know, week one. I I mean the symmetry is uh Seattle, Seattle, uh his worst nightmare, his worst the worst game of his life, supposedly 14 pressures uh pressures according to next gen stats, and now he's facing the nightmare again.

SPEAKER_01 29:07

Yep.

SPEAKER_04 29:08

So I think, and that's in the house of horrors that is Seattle. So I think I think we'll have a a better idea about the offensive line, depending on how well they hold up in Seattle.

SPEAKER_00 29:26

Yeah, I I so I'm with you, and I think that this comes into play because obviously the preseason's been shortened, so the starters aren't really playing at all. Um and it brings me back to what you know Bill used to say. It's like the season, he really thought the season would start in like October, November. And and I think now more than ever we're we're gonna be learnt learning that. So you just hope that everybody stays healthy uh on the offensive line so that we can get a good test. But there is uh of course you had to drop an article today, and I had to I had to read it and

Christian Gonzalez Contract Standoff

SPEAKER_00 30:00

rewrite everything. Um because you talked to uh Patriot legend, right? So for those of you that don't know, we're recording this on Wednesday, September 2nd. Karen has a new column out today featuring Rodney Harrison, really uh essentially arguing that the Patriots cannot allow the Gonzalez negotiations to reach the point of no return. Uh you've been all over this uh situation, and now you've talked to one of the greatest patriots and one of the greatest uh safeties I would I would say of all time. You've also been critical of how the Patriots they had this apparent lack of urgency. So in the most professional way I can ask you, what what the hell are they doing?

SPEAKER_04 30:46

I don't know. They're being business people, businessmen trying to, I mean, I d I don't know. I mean, I'm sure they have these core principles uh uh on negotiated negotiating and who's worth and who's not worth it. I mean, Bill Belichick paid certain positions and not others, right? I mean, it was a thing with him, and Bill also wasn't necessarily big on extending people he drafted. You know, it's like he got the four years out of them and see you later. I'm gonna get rid of you before you uh downspiral. Yep. I'm not sure all of that is in play now, but they certainly have the money to spend, but I think again, they're running a business, and next year the mother of all extensions may happen with Drake May. And I mean, we're talking 30 to 40 million a year with Gonzales, with Drake, we're talking 60 to 70 million a year, with most, if not all, of it guaranteed. And and so you have Drake coming up next year, and you also have it, and if AJ Brown has a type of year that people are expecting, he's gonna be knocking on the door saying, Hey, you know, how about some more money from me? How about an extension for me, right? So I think you know, they're trying to draw a little bit of a line in the sand, uh when it comes to this, you know, Gonzalez situation. And again, if they set a precedent with him on guaranteed money, let's say, and and and if they give him twenty percent, eighteen percent, fifteen percent over the guy he's trying to top, right? Then you Drake's people are gonna come back next year and say, I better get 18% over the highest of I mean, this is again, these are all things people don't care about. But the people who run businesses, successful businesses like the pe like the Patriots, uh, are concerned about things like that.

SPEAKER_00 33:31

So, you know, that all makes sense to me. And I I think that you did a really good job articulating that. But I just want to ask you like, is this do you believe, is this just a like a normal NFL negotiation, or do you think that the Patriots are legitimately mishandling this?

SPEAKER_04 33:50

Well, I'm not gonna say they've mishandled it until uh it it has it it doesn't happen. And okay, fair okay, all right. Um so but I also think there's more variables in play here. I and and it's something I think the organization has to recognize. You have um you have a coach who's come in and very and preached draft, develop, resign. Right? Even Robert Kraft has talked about the draft being the lifeblood of teams, right? A lot of their depth issues currently are the result of poor drafting from previous regimes. Yep, and the cupboard is bare, and they've been trying to restock and reload and and and and so on and so on. So anyway, Mike Rabel comes in, preaches his culture, is preaching this to the players. You come in, we draft you, we develop you, you do what we tell you, and you will be rewarded. So this is like test case number one, Gonzalez. Homegrown, first round draft pick. If you don't take care of him, how is that gonna? I mean, it's almost like you're cutting off Ravel's legs or credibility, right? Yeah, and you're sending a bad message to the locker room for for you know players. Oh my god, we're gonna have to fight arm and leg? You know, is Drake thinking, am I gonna have to fight arm my tooth and nail to get money? You know, I mean, this is the precedent setter for this gene. So, TVD.

SPEAKER_00 36:10

Okay, so Rodney, you know, made the case that you don't let a player like like this get away. Is there any scenario, any scenario at all, Karen, where we're sitting here a year from now talking about Gonzo playing somewhere else?

SPEAKER_04 36:28

Well, here's what the here's the unknown, okay. Um, and I don't know this. I mean, obviously, I know that Gonzalez wants to be the highest paid corner. He wants to to obviously leap over Devin Witherspoon, and we have the all the parameters for that deal set. But is Gonzalez not going to be happy with just getting over him? Or like he I think he wants to set a new market for every you know, what if he wants to set the market or set the bar instead of 31 million or 32 million a year? He's upwards of 35 and close to 40. I mean, Gonzalez thinks or told us that he didn't shy away from thinking cornerbacks, top cornerbacks should be paid what the high highest receivers are paid because they have to shut them down, right? So why do receivers get more? Receivers are in the 40 million a year threshold, cornerbacks in the 30 million a year threshold. So with a spoon is what 31.5 million a year? Well, if you're the Patriots and Gonzalez is trying to get 40 million a year, how do you look at that? And not only 59 million up front, oh let's go with 65 million up front from the guaranteed money. And again, these are these are the unknowns.

SPEAKER_00 38:21

Here's what we do now. If if Christian if Christian Gonzalez said what he said about corners needing to be play uh paid like wide receivers when an old curmudgeon was still our head coach, we know what would happen to him. Yes, peace out for the two two third round picks. Um is it now we don't know what what uh what they feel, but we we know based off of history. Is it is it the guaranteed money from a Patriot front office perspective? Is it the structure and guaranteed money that you think is holding this up?

SPEAKER_04 38:59

Or is it more of it? I think is the details like that. I think uh historically, historically, the Patriots have backloaded the contracts with the guaranteed money. So again, it's not like they're not gonna get it, but you're not getting it right away, you're getting it down the road. Weatherspoon, 101 million guaranteed, 59 million at signing. So maybe we're gonna get a lot of things.

SPEAKER_00 39:34

So we've got to do 110 million guaranteed with 65 million at signing.

SPEAKER_04 39:40

Well, no, I mean maybe the Patriots are like, okay, fine, here's like 102 or 105 million guaranteed, uh 50, 40 at signing, and the other 60 year three or four or whatever.

SPEAKER_00 39:59

How do you not take that? You know, I mean, I get it. You what he he thinks he is better than Witherspoon. Okay, so sure.

SPEAKER_04 40:08

Um again, it's it's it's time. I mean, but these are these are the details.

SPEAKER_00 40:16

It's guaranteed money. Not till I play a talk radio host thing. But isn't that if you're the Patriots and you're Robert Kraft, and you've you've offloaded Bill and Tom, and now five years later, you're in you're back in the Super Bowl, you have a younger head coach, you have your quarterback, you have a shutdown corner. How how smart is it to even have the phrase guaranteed money come up as as a reason as to why you're not signing somebody?

SPEAKER_04 40:51

Well, again, that's what it is.

SPEAKER_00 40:54

I know it is.

SPEAKER_04 40:56

Uh that's where it's at. And again, it could be something, as I said, as to when it's coming. You know, it's not like, okay, so they got the number right. When does he get it? Right?

SPEAKER_00 41:10

Right. So well, I do think this is the first time in a long time that they probably haven't out because, like you mentioned, I think you're a little conservative with your numbers, in my opinion. They're gonna have to pay Drake 75 to 80 million a year.

SPEAKER_04 41:25

Well, by that time, sure.

SPEAKER_00 41:27

Right? You know what I mean? Like it's unbelievable.

SPEAKER_04 41:31

I mean, in the current, uh current uh who 65 million might be it. So, yeah, so it's gonna escalate from 65 to 75, probably uh per year. And again, so ridiculous um, you know, fully guaranteed, or 95% guaranteed, or 90% with 80% up front. I mean, so uh I yeah, these guys are billionaires, but still, again, they have to for the guarantee, they basically when they guarantee money, it's put like in an escrow account or whatever. And you know, okay, well, how much do we have to put in the escrow? You know, again, it's these are details, but again, I'm not a billionaire, so I don't know what that means.

SPEAKER_00 42:34

You no not everyone will uh will allow for the Shohei Otani uh contract, uh, which is unheard of. Um But there is you know, there is precedent now. I I do take solace in the fact that you know we always say like Brady was the only guy that would take hits like uh take uh compensation hip hits. Mahomes is doing that, not to the same extent. But his his deal, a lot of it has been negotiated and and uh and recut to help that team grow.

SPEAKER_04 43:04

Deferred pain, you know, it's like they're gonna get you're gonna get it, you're just not gonna get it this minute. So, you know. Right. So we'll see. I mean, again, you have to be willing to do that.

SPEAKER_00 43:19

But Kraft was out there saying that we offered him a contract that would make him the highest paid corner.

SPEAKER_04 43:25

Right, but but technically, if he if he's if he offered him something that was 32 million a year, that technically that has nothing to do with guarantees. Highest paid is the per annum.

SPEAKER_01 43:40

Yep.

SPEAKER_04 43:41

So he can, hey, yeah, we made him the highest paid in the yeah, but we didn't guarantee a nickel of it.

SPEAKER_01 43:46

Right.

SPEAKER_04 43:48

So I mean, so again, it it's it's a technicality. I'm sure they offered him to be to be the highest paid. Uh But w how much of it is he really getting?

SPEAKER_00 44:06

And you don't have any inside sources into what that contract looked like? That contract offer looked like?

SPEAKER_04 44:13

Well, again, you can sort of guess.

SPEAKER_00 44:16

Yes.

SPEAKER_04 44:17

Right? So 31. So it it would he has to get it has to be something. And I think it I think it was a four-year deal for 32 or whatever that got that gets him over with a spoon, 32, 33 maybe. But again, and if uh how much I think was with a spoon 132 million, four years? Four years, I think 132 million, something like that.

SPEAKER_00 44:47

Sounds right, yeah.

SPEAKER_04 44:48

Yeah, so what if the Patriots offered him four years?

SPEAKER_03 44:53

136.

SPEAKER_04 44:54

Right. So they're over. But then okay, we'll guarantee 50 million as opposed to 101. Or we'll we'll we'll guarantee 102 million, but we're only gonna give you 30 million up front.

SPEAKER_00 45:12

Yeah. I just I just I understand he's a smart businessman, but as a f as a fan, as someone who just uh you know consumes Boston sports media, it's so ridiculous that he would just give the red meat of well, I did offer him a contract that would make him the highest player, wink, wink, nod, nod. And we all know that's because you offer you probably offered him 25% less guaranteed money. Like who would who would take that? Right. Um this does lead us to one of my favorite articles that you wrote.

Defense Concerns Run Fits And Rush

SPEAKER_00 45:50

Um you wrote an assessment and you uh essentially said that the defense is not as good as last year's unit. You you do think that it uh that it can still function effectively as a bend don't break group if Gonzo is engaged and the starters stay healthy. But I mean, why are you less confident in in this year's defense as opposed to last?

SPEAKER_04 46:16

Because uh, well, depth is one of the issues.

SPEAKER_00 46:19

Yep.

SPEAKER_04 46:20

The Gonzalez situation was another. Again, is he gonna be with a contract or without if he's without a contract? How many tackles do you think he's gonna make or want to be? Is he gonna throw his body in there? Think of Sauce Gardner. Right? Again, it's like self-preservation. He'll be out there. We're back to the cliff.

SPEAKER_00 46:40

We're back to the cliff, by the way.

SPEAKER_04 46:42

Yeah, he'll be uh he'll be out there, but it's how engaged. I mean, how much of he's gonna throw his body into tackles? How much are we gonna see a mole like Sasgar? So that factors into it, and they didn't replace Kyrus Tonga. He he was such a good stout uh run defender. He plugged the holes in the middle, and you know, already we've seen evidence of you know, from the joint practices teams just running right up the gut. I mean, Barmore wasn't in in in uh was only half engaged in those joint practices, but again, that's kind of a red flag to me. I mean, Seattle ran over them in the Super Bowl.

SPEAKER_01 47:33

Yep.

SPEAKER_04 47:36

So if they ran over them with Kyrus Tonga there, take them out. What you know what how how much better are they gonna be?

SPEAKER_00 47:44

Kenneth Walker is also gone too, so that that we couldn't judge but that's the sentiment, is what you're saying.

SPEAKER_04 47:49

And it's and it's weird because I think they the first nine games, they didn't allow a 50-yard rusher last year. But now, here I'll I'll flip it though, how they could sort of get away with it, right? If they're not the most stout run defense. If if the Patriots' offense is as good as we think, and they start piling up points, teams aren't gonna run. They're gonna throw. And that and that goes right into the Patriots, the strength of the Patriots defense, which is their secondary. So you that's why I'm saying Ben don't break. They they still kind of qualify for that.

SPEAKER_00 48:32

In the in the the list of from weakest to strongest, obviously, we think that the secondary, if Gonzo is engaged, is probably their strength. Um where do you rank their pass rush?

SPEAKER_02 48:44

Ugh.

SPEAKER_00 48:47

Is it right there with their their run stopping capabilities?

SPEAKER_04 48:50

I think with Williams and Barmore in the middle, they'll get push up front. But I I don't see where any I don't see them getting anything off the edge. But again, what you do to counter that is you blitz, you blitz your safeties. With if you have uh an engaged Gonzales, you can do that because he can take guys one-on-one, and so can Carlton Davis on the other corner. So you can gamble like that, and you can generate a pass rush with blitzes, with safeties going in there, even with the opposite corner going in there. But um, you know, if you can't play man on the outside, you're dead blitzing.

SPEAKER_00 49:40

Okay. So we're all we're telling a story. And this leads me to you sounded the alarms. This is the biggest warning sign that that you've given us this offseason. We've already talked about it. Uh, you call this roster top heavy, right? Um, and you know I love you, and I agree with you too, but I just want to push back and see what you would say to this. Isn't every Super Bowl contender top heavy? Like, at what point does the Patriots' lack of depth become different than everybody else's?

SPEAKER_04 50:13

It pro they just there's more places or more key spots, let's say.

SPEAKER_01 50:20

Okay.

SPEAKER_04 50:21

But but here's the you know, it's interesting that they're top heavy. And again, going back to the Bill Belichick days, you know, when he had his fastball, um he was big on not necessarily star power, right? Like this team, but the middle class. And I would argue that his middle class or his middle tier of players was the strength of these teams. Like, and and those are the again, the support people, you know. Um, and and you know, be because most teams are top heavy and they're replaced, and there's such a gap with the replacements, right? There was really not in the Belichick days of winning, the you know, the gap wasn't huge between a starter and the next guy up.

SPEAKER_00 51:25

Yep. What's with aside from like your your five player examples, right? You know, um, I so you think, yeah, this team is has more stars, but does have a larger gap between okay, okay. Um and I think I think it was the article, it was after the 37-13 preseason loss to the Browns. Um, you like really highlighted that Vrabel admitted that that that the team is not deep and point, you know, pointed specifically to how badly the defensive backups performed. So you've called them top heavy. Vrabel has acknowledged that they're not very deep. How big of a problem is that over 17 games?

SPEAKER_04 52:13

If nobody gets hurt, it's not a problem at all.

SPEAKER_00 52:16

Right.

SPEAKER_04 52:18

Or if you know the injuries are like a week here, week there, as opposed to season ending, or you know, put them on IR and you're out for five weeks, right? I mean, the Patriots didn't have a significant injury until um, you know, I think Milton Williams was out for a bit, and uh Will Campbell missed. Um, but by that time the engine was already rolling, you know, and they were already beating the tar out of teams and you know, got 10 straight or whatever. Um but uh you know they were able to withstand. But if you got injury, well, the other thing, you know, uh I think they had some injuries to linebackers, but their backups were so much better. Jack Gibbons jumped right in for Spillane, and there was some drop-off, but not a huge, I mean, it wasn't, you know, like, oh my god, you know. But now it's hard, it's tough to see if one of the linebackers gets hurt again, and it and that all comes into covering of tight ends and backs and stopping the run. You know, they're they're uh, you know, they've since added some linebackers, they've since added not edge rushers, um uh cornerbacks, they've since added help for on the offensive line uh and tight end, which I thought was another key position. You know, it's tough if you you know you have Hunter Henry and then you have two rookies as the backups. And I'm glad that they've brought in a couple of veterans, you know, one on the roster and one uh on the practice squad. You know, if again, if Hunter Henry goes down, help.

SPEAKER_00 54:21

So is so which position group do you think has the biggest gap from starter to backup?

SPEAKER_02 54:32

Edge.

SPEAKER_04 54:34

And you don't linebacker edge and I don't know, linebacker's a toss-up.

SPEAKER_00 54:40

Because you didn't really rank pass rush as a as a as as a primary skill set edge, edge rusher is is again you have so your two starters from last year, edge rushers, are uh Harold Landry, your two best, uh, and he's not playing for at least the first four weeks.

SPEAKER_04 55:05

The other guy they lost in free agency and they brought in Draymond Jones. So now Draymond Jones is your guy. Uh and you have uh Gabe Akis as the next guy up, and he missed all of the early camps, and he's trying to play catch up. So, you know, it's just again, don't get injured.

Top Heavy Roster And Injury Risk

SPEAKER_00 55:41

Don't get injured. Okay. Here we go, my favorite part, and then and then we're gonna close. But uh every year, I think it's the fifth year that you joined us, which we are so lucky for, and I look forward to it every year. It's the the win-loss prediction. And we're gonna go game by game.

SPEAKER_04 55:57

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 55:58

Uh so week one at Seattle.

SPEAKER_04 56:04

You know, I would love, I would love for them to beat them there, but it's just hard. I think that's your heart talking and not your head talking. But I'm gonna let my head talk here and say loss.

SPEAKER_00 56:20

Okay, 0-1. So week two, home opener against the moron uh quarterback in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Win, right?

SPEAKER_02 56:29

Win, yes.

SPEAKER_00 56:30

Uh week three at Jacksonville. This is a sleeper game for me.

SPEAKER_02 56:34

Win.

SPEAKER_00 56:35

I agree, but I think it's gonna be close. Um at Buffalo.

SPEAKER_04 56:41

They won this game last year, but I uh I think they lose this game this year.

SPEAKER_00 56:47

All right, two and two. Uh home game uh against the Raiders.

SPEAKER_05 56:53

Win.

SPEAKER_00 56:54

Three and two. Then we have uh at uh home game against the Jets.

SPEAKER_05 56:59

Win.

SPEAKER_00 56:59

Four and two. Uh this should this is gonna be a fun game. This is a Super Bowl matchup I was hoping for last year. Uh at Chicago.

SPEAKER_04 57:09

Thursday night.

SPEAKER_00 57:10

Yeah, Thursday night game.

SPEAKER_04 57:12

I'm gonna have I'm gonna say that's a loss.

SPEAKER_00 57:17

So you have them four and three so far.

SPEAKER_04 57:19

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 57:21

Uh at Miami, win. Win versus Green Bay.

SPEAKER_04 57:27

So I think with do they play they play Green Bay and Detroit?

SPEAKER_00 57:32

Back to back weeks. Yep.

SPEAKER_04 57:34

I think they split those, but I'll say they beat Green Bay and they lose to Detroit. Although I think it could go either way. But I do see them winning one and losing one in those in that two-game split.

SPEAKER_00 57:47

So going to the bye week.

SPEAKER_04 57:50

So what are we at? If okay.

SPEAKER_00 57:51

Going to the bye week, you had them at six and four.

SPEAKER_04 57:55

Okay. Bye week.

SPEAKER_00 57:59

And now this is this is where the fun starts. You open up uh at the Chargers.

SPEAKER_05 58:06

Win.

SPEAKER_00 58:07

100%. That's seven and four. Uh home against Buffalo.

SPEAKER_05 58:12

Win.

SPEAKER_00 58:13

Eight and four. Uh Thursday night game uh against Minnesota. Come on, it's a win. You know it.

SPEAKER_04 58:21

I know. Uh I I have it as a win, but it's one of those sleeper games because it's sandwiched between Buffalo and Kansas City, and it's a Thursday night game, and they will be so high off beating Buffalo that they might not take Minnesota all that seriously, but I'm gonna say win.

SPEAKER_00 58:45

Okay. Uh at Kansas City, assuming that the whole band's back together, that's gonna be my assumption is Mahomes, Tyreek, Travis Kelsey.

SPEAKER_04 58:55

Lost.

SPEAKER_00 58:56

You don't think we're gonna beat them?

SPEAKER_04 58:58

And Kansas City? It's at Kansas City, correct?

SPEAKER_00 59:01

Yeah, it's at Kansas C that's Monday Night Football.

SPEAKER_04 59:03

Or is it in Kansas? Where is that going?

SPEAKER_00 59:07

That's that's two more years from now.

SPEAKER_04 59:09

No, I have that as a loss.

SPEAKER_00 59:11

Okay. Then we have at the Jets when Flex game versus Denver. Loss. And then uh home game.

SPEAKER_05 59:25

Yeah, win.

SPEAKER_00 59:27

So you have the medal, is that 11 and 6?

SPEAKER_05 59:30

Yep.

SPEAKER_00 59:33

Okay. All right. It just felt I don't know why it felt a little bit more bleak.

SPEAKER_04 59:37

Well, what did you what do you have, Matt? What's your opinion?

SPEAKER_00 59:40

Uh I think I so I had them at 11 and 6 as well. I think I just had different games that they lost. Um, I did not have them losing to Minnesota.

SPEAKER_04 59:51

Well, I didn't that I don't have them losing to Minnesota either either. I have them losing to Kansas City, maybe Oh, Kansas City.

SPEAKER_00 59:58

I had them beating Kansas City but losing to uh I had them losing to Green Caye. Detroit as well. Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 1:00:10

So yeah, I do too. So I said that it's gonna be a win and a loss, those two games. It you flip a coin either way, but the way I have it is I I have them beating Green Bay and losing to Detroit. So that's the game that's in Munich, by the way.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:27

The Detroit to make up to make up for what we what we did to them three years ago with that Colts game.

SPEAKER_04 1:00:33

Yeah. So um so anyway, I don't know. I think 11 wins, 10, 11 wins is kind of be is gonna be where it's at.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:42

Now, obviously, this this all changes if there are big injuries for both us and and and and everybody else. Um I I think 11 wins for this schedule is a really good is is a really good sign. It doesn't show much of a regression. It actually shows that you're just as tough as everyone said that you weren't last year.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:01

Right.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:01

Um does that so do you have them winning the AFC East or they're in the wild card?

SPEAKER_04 1:01:08

I I didn't go through Buffalo. I mean, obviously it's gonna be between them and Buffalo. Yeah, but I think I think that's gonna go down to the wire. Uh the AFC East. Um I know Buffalo will be hell-bent on on getting it back. But you know what? I'm gonna say that the Patriots uh go back to back with the AFC East.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:36

Oh, I oh, I love that. Um so one

Game By Game Win Loss Predictions

SPEAKER_00 1:01:40

thing I wanted to just kind of close out with. Um, because we taught obviously the the the reverence and respect that I have for you and uh all all the time that you spend with us. Um you've covered a lot of Patriots teams, right? From the Brady Belichick years through everything that happened after Brady left to what we're seeing right now. So I wanted to know like when you're standing at practice watching Drake and and Vrabel, does it feel like it's the beginning of another sustained era of winning in New England, or is it just way too early to say that?

SPEAKER_04 1:02:14

I don't um I think it definitely has the potential to be. And again, you know, we know uh the importance of that great having a great coach and great quarterback dynamic. We saw what that did for two decades. Yeah, I mean, we've seen it in other places, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. There's again, and you we talked about this earlier, you know, how much that can make up for deficiencies. And and it and it's not just the quarterback, it's the it's the head coach, too. Um but the potential with Rabel and Drake May, that union, uh it could it could spark the next dynasty for sure. Um but in this day and age with contracts and money and injuries, it's just hard to like uh underline that in ink.

SPEAKER_01 1:03:22

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 1:03:22

Well, I mean, look at I mean, for everyone thought, you know, Kansas City was gonna basically overtake the Patriots dynasty. Well, guess what? Patrick Mahomes just blew his knee out, and yeah, uh, they didn't win four straight or three. Well, you know, they haven't they've come up against a bit of a wall. So it's not, I mean, it's not as easy, you know. What the Patriots did over the course of two decades, I'm not sure that will ever happen again.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:55

Yeah, I think the league is trying to make sure that that that is likely the case.

SPEAKER_04 1:04:00

Um well, they actually tried during it too.

SPEAKER_00 1:04:03

I know they changed the rules.

SPEAKER_04 1:04:04

They didn't solve the rule. They, you know, they they took Brady away for four days, four games, and they he responded by winning the Super Bowl that year, you know, stuff like that.

SPEAKER_00 1:04:16

But your chief's point, though, right? I th or Mahomes' point, he tore his ACL uh a year earlier in his career than Brady tore his.

SPEAKER_04 1:04:30

At that point. Well, well, well, again.

SPEAKER_00 1:04:32

But Andy Reid's also way older than Belichick was.

SPEAKER_04 1:04:36

True. And I'm not sure Mahomes is as is maniacal as Brady. Like, in terms of I mean, what chip does Mahomes have had have on his shoulder? You know, I mean, he was a first-round draft pick. I mean, Dra, I mean, Brady was crazy uh in terms of his you know competitiveness and wanting to win every year. I mean, he was driven like no one else. I'm not sure. And again, it's not a knock on Pat Mahomes. He says he's a little more normal. Um, but I think uh again, that's gonna factor in. Is he gonna be wanting to play 20 years to to to to over to to win more than six Super Bowls? Again, it's just hard to again, it it's hard to say, but I I don't picture it. Yeah, you know.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:43

Well, also like the style of play is a little bit different. Mahomes w is a is is a runner ish. Uh Brady w was never that unless your name was Brian or Lacker.

SPEAKER_04 1:05:53

Um Well, I mean, then you can draw the same parallel to Drake. I mean, he hasn't won anything yet, but again. He's not a pocket passer.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:03

Right. He needs to be. Well, it would let me ask you. Was he running because he wanted to or running because he had to?

SPEAKER_03 1:06:11

Both. He did both. Both, I I would say.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:15

Because I don't think Mahomes never had the offensive line debacle that Drake had. Uh he you can see like he chose to move the pocket, Drake. Yeah. Yep. He would say hike and then he'd be on the move.

SPEAKER_04 1:06:27

But the Patriots are are trying to instill in him, he's a he's a passer first. And you have to exhaust all those possibilities, you know, as opposed to he I think Drake's first year as a rookie, he was quick to run and give up on plays, right? And I think they tried to get that out of him last year, and they did to a large extent. Um and we'll see if that's even more the case this year. But for Drake to be as effective as he's been, there still has to be that threat to run to keep teams, you know, this the linebackers in and the safeties uh having a spy on him, you know, again, uh having a defense have to worry about a quarterback running opens the field up. And again, if you have a great receiving core like the Patriots

Dynasty Potential And Where To Follow

SPEAKER_04 1:07:30

do, that's it, that's a significant detail.

SPEAKER_00 1:07:35

That's the highest note that we can possibly end this on. So uh Karen, thank you so much for uh for joining me again. And like I said, this is my favorite favorite episode of the year. Uh, for those of you that live under a rock uh and and that don't follow Karen, how can they uh where should they go to follow you?

SPEAKER_04 1:07:53

Uh on X at K Garegian. Uh and I I post my stuff on Facebook, both on Twitter and on Facebook. Uh uh so at K Garrian, or you can join up with Mass Live. Uh unfortunately, uh you need a subscription for that nowadays. People have to pay to read me, unfortunately. Uh, but it's a sign of the times. And uh, but it's a good deal because Mass Live has uh quite a few uh really great writers and reporters covering all sports, not just the Patriots. Um if you want to subscribe to Mass Live, go for it.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:42

Awesome. Uh well for Cameron Guerrigan, this is Michael Marcangelo saying thank you for listening to Missing the Point. We're kicking off NFL season and we can't wait to uh to talk to you again as the season progresses, Carrie. Thank you so much.

SPEAKER_04 1:08:53

Thanks for having me, Mike.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:54

Bye-bye.