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Sept. 1, 2022

The MTP/NFL Best Bets Show

The MTP/NFL Best Bets Show

YOUTUBE VERSION

It's our best time of the year!

Football Season? Nope!

Betting on Football Season!

Dave and Bobby break down the best bets for the 2022 NFL Season that are most likely to hit including; MVP, Super Bowl Champion Offensive, and Defensive Players and Rookies of the Year, and which teams might be betting sleepers heading into the season!   
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Hosts: Bob Kelly, Dave Clarke
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Transcript
Rob Kelly:

Welcome into missing the point everyone, real BK Bob Kelly here with DK sizzle. We're gonna give everyone a nice little preview into our degenerate lives is the NFL betting extravaganza era missing the point we're gonna go over all things betting for that NFL season you know, MVP award Rookie of the Year coach of the year, we're gonna go into some of the divisions, some long shots, some favorites, we think could be chumps pretenders who knows what we'll get in some good stuff here. How you doing

Dave Clarke:

tonight, you're doing great, I can't wait to figure out. I know how I'm gonna lose my money, but like specifically how I'm gonna lose my money. Typically, the odds that I'm going to chase,

Rob Kelly:

this is the best time of the year, you know, because like, everyone's got a chance. And there's no real bad bet at this point. You're either betting like, you know, tossing a couple of bucks on what could happen or,

Dave Clarke:

you know, let's say 1000 on the Seahawks to win the NFC.

Rob Kelly:

See what I mean? That's what I'm saying. Like, there's there's some outrageous ones that could easily make a case for I mean, maybe not Seahawks plus 1000. But what was 8000 plus 1000? There? Yeah. So you know, we'll just we'll just jump right into it. We'll start big and we'll work back that way I guess, or do you wanna you want to start small work back What do you think

Dave Clarke:

I'm always ready to start big? Alright, so we'll you know,

Rob Kelly:

we'll just jump right into AFC Championship and NFC Championship odds. Cool. So AFC, you know, if you look down this list here, obviously the bills in the Chiefs up at the top stick out, plus 300 plus 500. But as you work down this list, man, I'm intrigued at what you think here I'm looking at a couple of teams and like that plus 900 the plus 1100 range I hate to say it but again we talked about this last value show we did I don't know if you remember this where we actually named out the bangles for our public here yeah for them to ride in the playoffs neither of us placed the bet and they ended up going all the way to this well what do you think at them at plus nine

Dave Clarke:

I mean, to me it's it's less the Bengals at plus 900 and more the Bengals are post 900 in the bills at plus 300 Like I think that you know the team did come out of the AFC last year and I think with a glaring reason and an easy reason why they lost the championship game being able to sort of identify it seems like the Bengals organization is identified at somewhat are they that much worse than the bills? Are they 600 Worse than the bills? I don't think so. I think well I mean between me and you and we've said this on shows too. I think the bills are the guys that are going to be the champions of the UFC Yeah, I do but you got to play the odds you're not playing the team you're playing the odds right you're playing the bets and for the purposes of this plus 900 for the Cincinnati Bengals is a smart bet. I mean it's it's it's good value it's a team that's going to do well so you're going to be in the running at least I would think until you know we 1415 1617 At least until then if not a coming down to the wire and if you look at some of the value on the teams in between the Broncos at 850 No like I know I need yeah I need six figure numbers on that 850 is not enough so the fact that they think that you know the Russell Wilson bump is going to take the Denver Broncos into more likely than the AFC Champions to be AFC Champions this year I mean I don't think so. Yet the Los Angeles chargers you know I'm high on Herbert this year you know I'm here for him at 350 or sorry in year three at 750. But again I mean that's they're more of a longshot than I need I need more numbers than that but you sit in pretty right on that list Cincinnati Bengals plus 900 Easy easier to take than that and and especially since like you said we fucking called it last season and then didn't put the fucking put our money up.

Rob Kelly:

That'll haunt me forever every time I watched that bank was run last year my god dammit we should have fucking run away from that they were like plus 1100 Going into the playoffs to win the AFC Championship right

Dave Clarke:

represent yeah, those are good numbers and we set it to each other and then we just we both got lazy and we could have had a nice steak dinner on that fun.

Rob Kelly:

Yeah, no, I think that's a great point. Dude. The chargers in the Broncos to me being being that high and the AFC it just that really jumps out to me as like don't don't bet this like if you got to do that that's that's it's just not enough value for a team that a the Chargers both those teams and make the playoffs

Dave Clarke:

last year. That's it that to me that screams that screams of volume odds changes that that makes me think that like maybe if we had a look at this three or four weeks ago the Broncos would have been 1100 I don't think Vegas is stupid enough to to line out the odds on the Denver Broncos that at lower than this is any mangles but if they get a lot of bets on the Denver Broncos they're forced to write because they don't want to like do do these huge payouts that cripple their fucking little nefarious bookie market So I that to me thanks smacks of Broncos nation thinks they're gonna Let's ride and a lot of a lot of bets came in on the Russell Wilson Assad's over in or I should say up in Denver, but the air is thin up there and that's not good for cognitive reasoning. So what's your plus 850? Denver? Sorry, guys, I don't think you're gonna be bad but I mean, look at their division, their division is insane like to come out of the AFC forget coming out of the AFC. I'd love to see them come out of that division, I guess. I mean, I said on record in the last show, I think they're gonna be fourth in that division. So, I mean, we'll see I guess

Rob Kelly:

three out of the four top odds. I know we keep preaching on this on all these preseason shows. That division really is absurd three out of the top four in the AFC are in the AFC us chiefs chargers Broncos a good

Dave Clarke:

transition honestly into I mean, I'm not saying it's smart money, but it's a it's a good price on the on the Raiders plus 1800. Robots couldn't agree more 100. Like that's a good price on them. I know their division is tough. I know they're dealing with the you know, with the likes of the chiefs and and obviously, very packed schedule, but come on, you know, plus 1800 I could see those I could see those odds going forever in your favor. If you put a few bucks on that, for example, their level with the tights, like with the Raiders being plus 1800. In the Titans beat both me and plus a 300 doesn't make any sense. Because one's a smarter bet. You know, and it's definitely the Raiders, the Titans aren't gonna do anything. They're losing players left and right. I think they have a good coach. But you know, what happens when Derrick Henry has to have an even higher workload this season, which we all know is going to be the case because the offensive weapons have gone down. And he hasn't really made it through a whole season with a friend with any kind of, you know, any kind of impact in the in the offseason available to him because he's so banged up. So because of the way he runs which stating the obvious, but plus 1800 That's a different value bet when you bet on the Raiders as opposed to the Titans.

Rob Kelly:

Yeah, no, that's crazy to me that they're they're that low on here. You look at a team like, I don't know, when these were updated, because the Browns plus to 1600. That doesn't make sense. They have to be lower than that at this point. Right? Yeah, they gotta be.

Dave Clarke:

I mean, well,

Rob Kelly:

he's coming back week. 11. So I guess I guess that's really what you're banking on, is that if you if you're putting money on the ground, first of all, you're banking on a guy who hasn't played all season coming back week 11, and actually making a difference, and also them staying afloat during that first 11 game stretch,

Dave Clarke:

which it I know, the North isn't great, but I was gonna say, seems like a long stretch away, their division is weak. And I will say like, as much as he's a piece of shit, and I'm not here to endorse, like this dude is a human, I think there's been a little bit if we're just talking just footballing ability, there's been a little bit of a short memory about how good he actually is. Because it's very good. So he's very good. He could come back week 11 and win them six games, you know, it's possible. And if they're in kind of a half and a half situation, I mean, look, we're talking pretty high odds here. I mean, I know it looks kind of like comparable sat next to, you know, the plus 1800s of the Raiders, or the plus 2200s of the Patriots, it looks decent, but still pretty high odds, you know, if you're gonna put a plus 1600 Bet down. I haven't won many of those in my life. I'll say that. So, you know, it's, I don't think the Vegas has gone like, well, I don't know when they might do it. You know, I think they're going like, it's a long shot. But he does come back week. 11. So I don't know Plessy 16. And it makes somewhat sense to me. I do

Rob Kelly:

want to dive in here. Because this is a Boston centric podcast, you know, the dolphins and the Patriots both being 22. To one man that I don't? I don't know, I don't know about that. First. First of all, they're both in the bottom six of the AFC which was jumps out to me. And I just don't, I don't think I would risk my money on either of those teams, even at even at 22 to one you know what I mean? I feel like that's just they don't have a chance and that stacked AFC.

Dave Clarke:

So, you know, a good theme for the shows, if we're gonna give out any advice. And the thing that I've ever if I've ever done well, in my betting career, you got to spot the stairways and you got to spot that, you know, don't bet just a bet is the is the number one rule in this household. And spotting the stairways means it could be great. It could be terrible and plus 2200. Yeah, maybe it's it's long odds, and maybe you get paid back, but you're basically giving your money away. The idea is, you don't know what the Patriots are going to look like. You just You really don't know like anyone who tells you what they're really going to look like anyone who tells you they're sure of their record next season is lying to you. And the dolphins, to me are the biggest red flag stay away of the entire NFL right now. Because, again, seven gets seven games streak of losing seven games streak of winning a bunch of drama in the offseason with their clearly talented head coach a bunch of weird shit with the front office that I really don't really trust them down there. And like, oh, this cake that you're making of stay away cake The cherry on the icing of the top of the cake is the fact that their quarterback is maybe the most talked about bad quarterback of the last 10 years. And he's bad, he's not good. He's not going to win you the AFC if you get so you're handing your money off. I know it's fun sometimes to like, pop in $5 on your favorites betting app and see what plus 2200 have to give to you. But I mean, it's not you know, it's you're not going to give five bucks back and if you live your whole life with it's only $5 You're going to end up in a lot of debt after a while that should adds up. So stay away, stay away from those bets. I agree with you.

Rob Kelly:

That's such a that. So that's I want to relate just kind of a fantasy to if you're thinking fantasy, you're spending a high first round draft pick on someone, you're doing it because of the known because because what you know to be true and and you know the guarantees of Texas, right? Exactly. Yeah. When you're doing a late round fly, you're doing it because the upside Yeah, they don't have too much, you know, guaranteed in the tank, but at least there's a value value based system now either these teams, neither the upside outweighs that unknown. Know their downsides way higher, both of them. Yeah. Other than that, I mean, I don't know if there's much else to talk about. Now.

Dave Clarke:

There's one thing I'd love to talk about. There's a great phrase from the Pittsburgh Steelers,

Rob Kelly:

I knew you were gonna do

Dave Clarke:

a plus 4000 on the Pittsburgh Steelers. I feel like perfectly fine. I feel like they're way undervalued plus 4000. Do I think again, that you got to think about this logically? Do I think the Steelers are gonna win the AFC? No, but at plus 4000 If you're giving me those kind of odds, man, like why not? Why not take a look and flyer for a book? The Pittsburgh Steelers win in the AFC next season? I mean, that's something you know, I mean, it'd be a lot but I think the mitrice thoughts is real, I think I think Mike Tomlin like we discussed on the prediction show is never ever come in under 500. I think that the worst thing about the Pittsburgh Steelers last season was the quarterback the thing that they clearly glaringly needed to fix the most was their quarterback. I think they're a fucking highlight weapon factory on offense over there. I think they probably have guys we haven't even like really done any research on that are going to have breakout seasons like every season in Pittsburgh. And I think Nagi Harris is going to be top five running back this year. And I think that all of your fantasy drafts are going to reflect that. So why not take a punt on the Pittsburgh Steelers you know they got a good fan base they got a good home home field advantage they don't have that bad of a schedule this season. And you know, they've I think they've improved the quarterback. I mean, I know anytime you have a quarterback committee in the preseason, it's a bad sign it's a red flag because usually you're having three mediocre guys go against each other to mediocre guys go against each other. But that's not the case. They have Mitch Rybicki the most talented man in the world. So when he wins MVP and the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC next season we'll we'll see what we'll see. I guess.

Rob Kelly:

I wonder what his we'll get there. We'll get their

Dave Clarke:

4000 Fucking taking it.

Rob Kelly:

Yeah, honestly brown like I know. Steelers has been a bit of a tiff on the show over the years but my biggest problem always was and you know, this is their quarterback play. So I kind of agree with you. I

Dave Clarke:

think we got to see what it looks like.

Rob Kelly:

I agree. But Big Ben was a chump these last year there was so there's just throws that he was missing that normal NFL quarterbacks can't miss and when noodle D Yeah, it was it was bad. So I don't disagree. Plus, I mean, 401 man, you can't can't hate on it. You know, that's 400 More right? Yeah, yeah.

Dave Clarke:

Just knock a zero off. That's the usual way to convert the American odds.

Rob Kelly:

I got it. I got a shout out. Texans that 1500 The one is kind of hilarious. Like

Dave Clarke:

15,000 15,015 101 Yeah, yeah. 1500 Yeah. I mean, the other day, it was like Lovie Smith, got fired from Chicago, Illinois, posted a losing record of Illinois came back lead the Texans defense to 27th overall in the NFL, the 31st overall in the NFL, and now he's their head coach. I mean, I love love it you know, I got a long history with him. He led the bears to the Super Bowl. I always loved how CAMI looked. We used to joke like when it would cut to Lovie Smith I would do like a little voice for I'd be like, What's everybody doing? What's going on? It would like to for the camera be focused on it's like, oh shit, we're in a football game. That's like always looking at his face, but I always liked him. I thought he was a lovable Good, good defensive mind, but it is a fucking dumpster fire down there in Houston. I don't think I've ever seen a franchise. I mean, maybe there was oh and 16 Dolphins you know? I don't think I've ever seen a fucking franchise in worse shape and the Houston Texans right now. They might need to start thinking about relocating again. I know they're the newest team. Right there. They're still the newest team, right? Oh, yes. When they when they came And they'd beat the Cowboys their first game ever. Really? Yeah, but they weren't good for years and years and years they got good they fell off at the most rapid pace I've ever seen in that fucking franchise like they might want to think about going to fuck I don't know being on a second San Francisco team or something I it's it doesn't work. It doesn't work in Houston,

Rob Kelly:

that first round quarterback that just needs to go find somewhere else. It's just us needs to go find a new city at this

Dave Clarke:

time and they're cursed. I don't know what's going on down there.

Rob Kelly:

So what do you think go AFC division so you want to head over the NFC but let's

Dave Clarke:

do the NFC because I want to talk about how I really like your cowboys a plus 800

Rob Kelly:

Yeah, I was thinking that actually. So honestly, we'll just list off the first couple so we got bucks plus 325 Obvious favorites. Actually, that's not obvious. That's a surprise.

Dave Clarke:

I think that's wild fucking I'll level of odds. I don't think they're gonna be as good as people think

Rob Kelly:

rams plus 450 packers plus 509 years plus 700. My boys at plus 800 couples notables Eagles plus 1100 That's really it. I mean, I Cardinals 14

Dave Clarke:

Cardinals. 1400 not a bad not a bad point. Yeah,

Rob Kelly:

that's not bad. Other than that, man. I mean, there's a lot more everyone's closer together than in the AFC that's for sure. I don't think there's that defined line where

Dave Clarke:

the NFC chips aren't as good are they you know there's not as many good teams you know at the stack division in the in the AFC we just talked about like we don't have anything like that in the NFC I think a lot of these divisions got worse notably, you know, my bears in the NFC North I think that whole division got markedly worse look even looking at the Green Bay Packers at plus 500 Like I feel like there's years where you could you could almost lock up the Green Bay Packers win in the NFC you know and maybe they go and fail in the in the in the playoffs or whatever. But there's years where it's like it's always a good value bet to say to the Packers gonna have the best record in the NFC like it's always a good value bet sometimes, but I don't know like now plus 500 No weapons, Aaron Rodgers prefers to do Ayahuasca than watch game tape. Like he's doing bucking podcasts and he looks skinnier than he should and I don't know. I don't know. I don't try. I mean, I know I say this every year. I'm just saying it's wishful thinking but I'm not putting $500 in the Green Bay Packers and quite frankly plus 700 on the 40 Niners is also pretty low. I wouldn't hire you without

Rob Kelly:

unknowns at quarterback with them then I

Dave Clarke:

mean, they fuckin sign Jimmy Gino another year. It's like god man. It's like your boyfriend You can't break up with him. I feel like Joe Malkin, our podcast. One of our six podcasters is secretly the GM of this scruffy Niners because he has a full fuckin man crush on Jimmy Garoppolo and apparently so does the fucking GM of the 40 Niners because what is he still doing there?

Rob Kelly:

It's just it's blasphemous that you would spend all this draft capital on a quarterback you know hand hand the keys to your

Dave Clarke:

two years ago though, like two years ago

Rob Kelly:

fuck but they actually in the preseason said this is Trey Lance's team. And then secretly not not even secretly publicly be like, but also we're given Jimmy a key too, just in case you follow

Dave Clarke:

me like roses fucking wheelchair. He's like I'm still here fuckers. Yeah, it's unbelievable. I like those cowboys a plus 800 Though honestly, I really do. I think those that's just speaks to me so jumps out at me that plus 800 Like, I know, I know. I know the history I know that I know the things I don't want to I don't know if I want to hitch my wagon to it seeing the pain that you go through but man puts it on there for the Cowboys with the talent that they have on paper if you're like taken away context, if you've taken away this stuff that like usually makes you kind of run away from the Cowboys. It's put up or shut up here for Dak it's full on put up or shut up here for deck you know who is who is Dak is the is the is the question this year? Is their downside stuff at running back? Yeah. Is that committee a little messed up? Yeah. But like if they're just a little ballsy about it and they just make Zeke RB two right off the fucking bat. And they just say like, this is what we're doing. I'm sorry that his contract is more than it should be. I mean, you know, that Steelers told us year after year not to pay running backs like this. And now we're reaping the fucking rewards of him being on a really bloated contract. But also, you know, the way that your front office got a little sort of bamboozled by taking Dak and Zeke as a package deal was was sort of obviously not a good idea. They should have divided and conquered on that. One. All that being said, I mean, you can't tank because of your runningback performance, but you can tank because your quarterback performance. So again, we got to see but I like Dak I think he's a good quarterback. I've seen him play really well, if he could just leave a little bit of the mental military aside. I think cowboys A plus eight on it. That's not bad. That's not bad. I take a $50 punt on that. I think they're gonna be the number one defense this year and you said that you got you got blasphemed out of the fucking prediction show, but I don't understand why why not? I think they're going to do I think they're the best defense last year. So you know,

Rob Kelly:

I don't know that year under Quinn. Man, it can't get worse. You know what I mean? Like, oh, it can

Dave Clarke:

definitely get worse and get worse in Dallas. get worse. Yeah, but, but it shouldn't. Right. It shouldn't. It shouldn't. And I also think I also think Trey digs like I think a lot of this stuff that happened to him. Downside was in the second half of the season I think that was all youthful youthful mistakes. I think if he went into the offseason and he decides, yes I can still be a ball Hawk but I don't need to overcommit on the cover too I don't need to like fucking you know completely blow my coverage because I think I'm gonna get to every ball and just be a little bit smarter I think that his upside numbers could look way better this season and he could he could become a real professional you know, I think it was raw and now I think it's I you know it's time to kind of it's time for everyone in Dallas to be there's such an interesting case I really do like talking about him but it's time for everybody in Dallas to just be a little bit of a fucking grown up you know a little bit more of a fucking grown up and I think the Mike McCarthy thing aside

Rob Kelly:

it's a big boy to put aside and it does

Dave Clarke:

it does suck and as I as it came out of my mouth, I was like, but no, I still I like it a plus 800 I think that that especially with how if you look down the list if you take your listeners at home if you take your list of of oddsmakers wherever you place your bets and you look at the NFC, I think Vegas is telling you is anybody's fucking game. That's anybody. It's anybody's division. I think the smartest money you could probably lay out is on the Rams. Again, if I'm being quite honest with you. I think that the Buccaneers are looking a little strange. I think that there's some weird stuff over there and then my plus 325. That means to me that oddsmakers are saying that if the Buccaneers are plus 325 to win the NFC Championship and the Buffalo Bills or plus 300 Or in the AFC Championship, that's me telling that's them telling me that they do not think the NFC is as competitive because if those odds are even close to similar then no one's gonna look me in the eye and tell me with a straight face to the Buffalo Bills are not a lot better than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That's just no one's no one's gonna be able to do that on paper at least. So the quarterbacks 90, I mean, I know it's Tom Brady, but like my 325 You need to update if I'm putting money on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the AFC I don't see it. I don't see it.

Rob Kelly:

I agree with the Rams, man. I'm looking at other odds across sites too. And there's low as plus 550 with the Packers ahead of them, which to me, I just I don't know. I know the Stafford elbow thing is weird, but like how can how can you take a team that won the Super Bowl last year and look really good doing it and the quarterback issues or the questions on staff or winning big games that's now out the window to me like we saw what he can do on a big stage. He granted Tampa Bay Tampa Bay pulled the worst coverage I've ever seen in a two minute situation and

Dave Clarke:

to the game you know, the chiefs didn't look themselves I mean there was a lot had to go right to put the Packers

Rob Kelly:

ahead of him. That's crazy.

Dave Clarke:

No no god is crazy.

Rob Kelly:

Like I just I would feel more comfortable betting the bucks in the Packers at plus 500 and more comfortable betting the Rams at plus 325 You know if the rams are plus 325 I still be like okay, that's worth that's worth you know something maybe a parlay bet here or something like that to you know, increase it a little bit but like it would be at least worth something the bucks in the Packers under plus 500 to me make no sense that it's crazy and I agree

Dave Clarke:

with you. I agree with you. I think I think there's another there's a cut I would stay away from the NFC to be totally honest with you I wouldn't put any fucking money near anybody winning the fucking NFC I really wouldn't I think it's too weird. I think there's too many variables I think if you're going to if you're going to play you can play a couple long shots in the AFC and then who you definitely think is going to win the AFC and then I would move on from there and make some some prop bets on some more specific on some more specific circumstances but if you're betting on big kind of wide who's going to do what because of the odds which is tempting I get it because you know you're going to get higher odds on bets like this because a lot more can go wrong I would I would steer clear the NFC if it were me

Rob Kelly:

so so not even like the Vikings or the saints and plus 16 or plus 18 Jump out you

Dave Clarke:

know because like those are two teams you just can't trust Yeah, like again same same case we just made in the first yeah like I'm I'm not given Jameis Winston my money and expected him to come back with more money. That's just not I'm just not I don't see it happening. You know, and I'm never ever letting Kirk Cousins anywhere near my finances. There's just no fucking way so no, no, absolutely not. That's just me though. I mean, I just that's just how I feel about it.

Rob Kelly:

bears at the same odds as the Steelers plus 4000

Dave Clarke:

That's I mean great. Both my both my team rep plus 4000 We'll see I got

Rob Kelly:

together bro you got that you know that's

Dave Clarke:

I don't hate it. Fucking bears in the students came out of their respective kids comp the

Rob Kelly:

world would just end you know, talking to podcast will be over.

Dave Clarke:

Here's a weird thing. The bears are plus 4000 won the NFC which puts them at plus 1000 less than the lions. So the lions are a bigger long shot to win the NFC however, They think the Lions have better odds of winning the NFC North. So weird to me too. You can both things be true, right? So if if that's the case, the plus 1100 for the bears to win the NFC North, not a terrible bet. I mean, I don't think they're gonna again but plus 1100 for a divisional win, you know what I mean? Like for just it's just between them and three other teams like that's it I you know, again, I don't think they're gonna but like plus 1100 in comparison to the plus 4000 of them winning the whole NFC way better way better value for your money if he asked me.

Rob Kelly:

So let's transition that right over to the divisional outside. So what we'll suppose I just kind of wanted to touch on a couple parlays that I was looking at because this is this is where I like to get crazy because I'm like well you know, this favorite with this underdog. I kinda like so I think the bucks to me are such a shock you know, minus 275 I think that's good odds on something that's pretty guaranteed if you ask me like I

Dave Clarke:

know you gotta you gotta marry it with something like you said there otherwise you're not getting anything really out of it right

Rob Kelly:

so I'm thinking shoot over to the AFC a little underdog here one that we already talked about an AFC odds in Los Angeles. I'm thinking the Raiders

Dave Clarke:

oh yeah shit look at their look at the six sexy bro. Right Are they not right in the raiders in that division at all compared to the Broncos I don't get it.

Rob Kelly:

I think it's just the unknown but I guess it's the Wilson factors that last ride you know everyone's ready to jump on that Broncos country. That's

Dave Clarke:

right. I mean they're gonna be good. I mean, maybe they'll have a Stafford type you know situation happened over there. Like maybe he just needs a little bit of a like a fresh a fresh green pasture to go into and he'll be renewed you know, but because like that Seahawks team was just getting worse and worse. Plus 650 though just good odds i plus 650. parlay with what would you say

Rob Kelly:

the minus 275 so that would get you to like what eight to one

Dave Clarke:

eight that's a good little parlay. Yeah, I would shut on it quite honestly. I would shut the Dallas Cowboys plus 142 in the NFC East into that because I think that's another shot I mean, that's good odds for them. Yeah, to be honest with you they should be mine they should be minus 150 if you asked me to win the NFC she's gonna beat him to the fucking Eagles I

Rob Kelly:

doubt it that's that's that's the height bet is the Eagles so far. That's where everyone everyone's looking at the eagles that yeah, I'm not big on the Eagles either. I think they're How many years have we seen the eagles be that team that everyone has high on everyone's big on because they're free agent signings in the offseason and they never comes to fruition so I'm with you I'm not able to do so I'm with I'm with

Dave Clarke:

you know what i Another one I like in the in the divisional is NFC West I know it's a it's a it's a weird one but the Cardinals a plus 350 I wouldn't parlay with anything because I think it'll sink your parlay. But I think a straight betta Cardinals plus 250 and when that could happen. Yeah could happen. Kyler Murray you could have a frog an explosive season. They're weird team you don't know.

Rob Kelly:

You Yeah, I like that. Like that. I mean, especially when it comes to that. Him in a prove it year after getting that contract. You know what I mean? So So yeah, I liked

Dave Clarke:

that. And another like if you're if you want to just pump up any of your parlays to another like definitely won't sink you situation is the bills in minus 225 20. FCS, they're winning the FCS so,

Rob Kelly:

so you think so what is what is to what is the minus 225 and minus 275? Gets us okay, either positive odds?

Dave Clarke:

I don't know. I don't know how it works. I'm not a mathematician. I think it'd be close to the thing and it tells me how much money I'll get. So I

Rob Kelly:

mean, I wouldn't even be comfortable parley and the bills and the Bucks together as a nice little guy and an add on some kind of underdog in the end. Maybe even the Cardinals like you just said

Dave Clarke:

or or if you went bills and books with those negative odds and then and like it's a dog mind, but the Chiefs had plus 160 I know they're in like a really tough division this year. But like they're probably gonna win it right?

Rob Kelly:

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, if if I had to put money on one of them, it would be that Yeah.

Dave Clarke:

So that's your little punt. That's your risk by for the chiefs. You're gonna win that plus 160 that that's a good three man. parlay right there on division. There's a lot you can do on these divisional bets to be honest

Rob Kelly:

with you, I like to divisional best, I guess I have fun with them. Because then to like, you got to think of it this way. It's like So also you have that cash out option which is big for that all the books all the books have now where you know the bills are gonna run away with their division and you know, the Bucs are gonna run away with their division and my in my opinion, you know what I mean? And then you have all these other underdog bets where if they do make a run, you cash that shit out. Sure, too. You know what I mean? So it's good to have a good display right exactly

Dave Clarke:

what I'd stay away from honestly, I know that they're probably gonna win the AFC South but like the Colts rely on running back and Jonathan Taylor who could just fucking go down week four, you know, it just I know. It's like, you know, all the fantasy Can managers like about to do their drafts are going like shut the fuck up? I get it. I mean, I know it's not a nice thing to say. But anybody that relies them offensively on a guy at the running back position, I just I can't I personally I can't at minus 140 It's not enough of the lock, you know, so I would stay away from that you couldn't you could throw the money into the AFC North though, because some weird shit can happen in there. You know? All the odds are kind of floating around each other. The Steelers have the longest odds of plus 900 Why not? Feel good? Why not?

Rob Kelly:

I mean, to me, I think they're way closer to the rest of that pack than than what that's leading on. Yeah, you know what I mean? Like, if if if you coach you know, you got to think about that. If you get average quarterback play from the Steelers last year listen, they were a playoff team with significantly below average quarterback play. That's you know, like there's there's no beating around that bush. So if you get average quarterback play, I really think that they could be in there. Sure. Absolutely. Beyond jump over to MVP.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, that's right. I just clicked and you read my mind. That's what I'm looking at right now. There's some interesting ones over here. There is there is I could plus 1300 I like I mean, I know have an eye on the fucking cowboys but plus 1300 is good for a guy like that he could there was a few weeks last season and I keep poking hammering this point home and I know everybody's got this cowboys thing, whatever. Maybe it's because I'm not a pats fan. You know, I don't know but plus 1300 For a guy that was the best quarterback in the league for six weeks last season. I'd say six weeks right it was that would that would you say? Yeah, first verse six to seven was a guy that went fucking into a shootout with Tom Brady in week one, a guy that you know if it's if it's not for, like a sort of stuttering offensive scheme and a kind of underachievement. I know I mean, I know that hasn't gone anywhere but and I kind of an a kind of Jinxy cowboys franchise as a whole. And like Jerry Jones probably having to like pay back his contract with Satan by losing and heartbreaking fashions all the time. I still like plus 1300 as a number for that. I mean, we between him and Joe burrow Joe burrow plus 1200 Also good odds. I don't I don't hate that. I wouldn't be surprised if Joe burrow was the MVP next year, would you? I think the craziest thing to me if I was gonna bet on any on any quarterback to have an MVP level season, where did he go? Where do you where even Izzy?

Rob Kelly:

Who will mark? Oh,

Dave Clarke:

Justin Herbert A plus 900. I thought it was gonna be higher. I really thought it was gonna be higher. But I I personally, I think Justin herb is going to be MVP next year. That's my prediction. Plus 900. That's a perfectly acceptable rate. I'm pumped, because I'm like, pretty fucking sure he's the MVP next year. So

Rob Kelly:

it's so crazy how much hype that like with it, I get it. He's my dynasty quarterback. And in my fantasy league drafted him. I love Justin Herbert. But the hype train on him this year is wild. It's scary.

Dave Clarke:

But I think sure, but I think that like, I mean, I'm the only one fucking saying on on our podcast, I just like done on the record. But I think I think that when you look at you know, this is a guy who's a rookie of the year, right when he came in, it's a guy who they've consistently built around at a really good rate. It's a guy who learned the system really well. And it's a guy who really is, if you watched him last season poised to explode. There's a reason why people are saying he's going to have a breakout year and he's gonna get into that. Like we all know, he's a top 10 quarterback. I won't argue with anyone who doesn't tell me Justin Herbert is a top 10 quarterback in the NFL, because I don't think you know anything about the NFL if he told me that. But is this the season where he can become a top five guy? I think, almost certainly if you think if you look at his competition, can he be the best player in the NFL next season? I don't know. I mean, I think it's always up for debate. I think the NFL MVP is a weird award. But because of the hype train that you're talking about, that's not going anywhere. And that's a big part of the reason you win that fucking award a lot of the time. So if he's talked about from week one as the guy who's the front runner for the MVP, and he plays at the quarterback position, which is, let's be honest, easier to win that award from, why wouldn't he be the guy? Why would those odds are going to be at plus 250 by week three. So I'm just telling you right now, if you get if you want to get them if you want to make that bet, get it early, a plus 900 Right now, because I bet it was plus 12 104 weeks ago.

Rob Kelly:

Plus 900. Great. It's good numbers for that, for sure. I mean, you haven't tied right now. I know the guy. Listen, we just talked about him how I kind of feel a spiritual connection to him now because of his love of hallucinogenics. But, but Aaron Rodgers at plus 900 I'm sorry, two dudes. One, two, isn't a two straight now.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, but his team is so much worse though.

Rob Kelly:

Yep. But does not even speak to even more bounds that like if he elevates that team to the next level. And they go what 11 and six? I don't

Dave Clarke:

know if he's the golden boy that he used to be. You know, that he was a few years ago like the way that the NFL treated him. Though it was like three or four years ago. I think it was when Brady first went to Tampa there was this really stupid conversation going around it you know the Skip Bayless is of the world that like we got to filter only four hours of sports talk motherfuckers were going Yeah, but like on talent, like I think Aaron Rodgers to go. And like, I'm sorry, but that's just not the parameters of the conversation. You know what I mean? It's just that's just not what we're weighing it up on. Because if he was the go on talent, you have more than one half cocked fuckin Super Bowl that like he had to walk to. So, you know, I mean, to compare it to the fucking kind of achievements that Tom Brady has done. It's all talking heads, fucking, you know, breaking news bullshit. And I think that he's sort of disingenuous himself to the NFL community as a whole last season. He says a lot of stupid shit. He's become kind of a glowing example of an of an anti Vax asshole. And I know a lot of the NFL like fan base is like probably in support of that. But that's that's an outlier. You know, like, that's an outlier. have a reason to nominate a guy for MVP. If it's a popularity contest. He's not the prom king anymore. You know, he just doesn't give off that vibe anymore. He used to. He used to give off like Captain the football team fucking prom king like let's make him the fuck and let's make him Mr. Fucking Massachusetts or whatever the fuck and whatever your award was at your high school. But he doesn't give that vibe off anymore. He gives the like,

Rob Kelly:

That guy he's already 13 year old wearing the varsity jackets.

Dave Clarke:

He used to be cool in high school. Why is he hanging out with 21 year olds? Getting them high on gravity bong hits? You know, he's getting these given those vibes now. I don't want you to go into that man's apartment. I don't I don't I don't like you hanging around with him. He's a bad influence. So I just don't see it and in what is definitely a popularity contest. Now Tom Brady, you know, added one plus 800 a little worse odds than then Rogers a little worse. But like Tom Brady won the MVP. If I tell you how Tom Brady wins the MVP puts up MVP level numbers and around like week 10 goes like just so everyone knows this is the last one. He locks up MVP.

Rob Kelly:

It's it.

Dave Clarke:

It's over. I mean, I know he did the Michael Jordan like, I'm coming back. But like, if he says like definitely not after this. This is my last hurrah. I think. I think that's it. I think MVP voting is done. I think the odd the oddsmakers, the bookies close shop and shut down. Yeah. So I like Lamar Jackson plus 2000. When you think of that,

Rob Kelly:

yeah, no, that was actually gonna be the next one I go to is like, Listen, he's done it before. We've We've literally seen him win MVP before. We know the equation that it takes for Lamar Jackson to win MVP. The Ravens win the north and he has 1000 yards rushing and 3000 yards passing like we've literally seen it before. So for him to be at 200 The one plus 2000 to me is is absurd that he's below guys like like Russell Wilson, who's literally never finished third in the MVP below guys like Stafford even my boy Dak Baro all these guys, man. It's it's insane to me that he's that low? I can't believe it like, coming. You know, last year? Yeah, he was a little banged up. But if he's healthy man, he's gonna be in the top three or four MVP conversation, right? Like, there's no, if the ravens are good, there's no doubt that Lamar Jackson is a top five MVP guy.

Dave Clarke:

So it just, I mean, especially, especially with the kinds of numbers you can put up, you know, like, he can do it. He can he can do it all in theory, you know, I know people have their opinions about his arm, but I think there's games where he puts up so fucking fire. So I think it's top ceiling is top end is like is such that if he kind of gets to it on a consistent basis this year, he could be an early front runner, like we talked about, which is a lot of times the guy the guy that wins in my in my memory, right? Like the guy that you that people kind of decide is going to be MVP. By week, four or five of the keys are consistent. They usually isn't. Right. So also it's the same kind of conversation in every sport, but it's the is it the most valuable player to the NFL? Is it the most valuable player to your team? Is it the best player is the best player? Like on paper? Is it the best player on the unit test? Lamar Jackson's a guy where if you plucked him out of Baltimore, we wouldn't we would be done talking about Baltimore that would be that'd be the end of it. So I think that that kind of dynamism I think there's other examples of that don't get me wrong, but I think that the dynamism that things that he brings to that team and the things that he's super entertaining, I like when people shit on guys that are just like fun to watch when it's like not your team and it's uh you can just look at it neutrally it's just like why he's fun like who cares like him going to take a shit was fun like him fucking putting up numbers is fun him scrambling is fun him throwing interceptions is fun. I don't give a shit about the puck and ravens. So you know, great Fuck it. Let's just watch him you know, like, let's just watch him do his thing. I think I think plus you guys is a good little bit. To be honest with you. I think he's got skills.

Rob Kelly:

But I had Lamar last year. My fantasy team name was going for two

Dave Clarke:

it was a little weird. It was a little weird. That whole lot situation and he's kind of weird guy. And I can't really get a read on him but because he's fucking talented. He's He's fucking talented. He's athletic. He's getting better and he's put up a lot of like, what can you hear kinda like workout videos and shit. So like if you're Want to believe those? Put your money on that tooth out? Plus 2000 fucking long shot?

Rob Kelly:

The Ben Simmons videos

Dave Clarke:

that are the same as that.

Rob Kelly:

Yeah, the it's funny to me. So if you look down right you have the first non quarterback on this list is Derrick Henry at 400. The one which which completely get it. I understand why he's there. But if you look right above that, man, it's crazy to me that you have a guy Trey Lance who has played what 30 snaps in his NFL career ahead of Mack Jones ahead of Kirk Cousins ahead of tour ahead of your boy Mr. Trubisky ahead of a former

Dave Clarke:

MVP if that's not a bad thing upon either, by the way, I'm Mitch Fine Art

Rob Kelly:

plus the F 601. Why not? Exactly. It's just It's crazy to me that first of all, you have two running backs ahead of those quarterbacks a wide receiver ahead of those guys I just listed and a quarterback who's taking like 30 snaps so if you're looking for someone that you want to toss like two bucks on just for shits and giggles, I really think if you look at that cousins to Matt Ryan, less their cut so cousins, Matt Jones to to his toss to actually not to miss your best game. And Matt Ryan, I think that those are names that if you're looking at two $3 to have a long shot, I think you're still going to be at least with two three good three of those guys. You have a chance to still be in the conversation come week time. Right? Yeah, especially especially Matt Ryan plus 1000 Then I feel like that's, that's that's something to look at. I don't know, I feel like the offense might go to Jonathan Taylor a lot of the times but I mean, if the culture 10 And one come week 11 Who the hell knows man? Yeah,

Dave Clarke:

I mean, again, I you know how I feel about betting on teams that rely on that kind of offense, but I don't mind those numbers. So I see your point.

Rob Kelly:

I said this in the chat earlier. I think it's funny that this website got so um, that they're that they're listing JJ Watt at plus 200. And I don't even know how to say that. 25,000 the one Yeah. 2500 to $1 on that. Almond Ross. Hey, rounded 3500s of one like I

Dave Clarke:

like quarter. Quarter. Oh, Patterson's isn't there somewhere like 15 passenger was amazing. I mean, there's shit. crazier things have happened.

Rob Kelly:

I mean, you ever get there might as well. Actually, you know what, before we do that, I kind of want to go to D poi. I don't even know if it's listed on here but specifically because I want to talk about fucking Michael Parsons. And then it's gonna be Michael Parsons. I think he's winning this award this year, man. The only guy I think he's going to compete with him is Aaron Donald, but like the Cowboys set up their defense this year that they're going to let Mike roam they're going to let him do whatever the house do a little Troy Polamalu impression. Yeah, me he he's gonna be unreal this year. And and the Cowboys are gonna have that number one defense, like we said, and I think Mike is going to be the reason so I don't even know if we have to go too in depth today. If you agree with that, then everyone out there. I don't know what the odds are on it. But put your money on like partials.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah. I mean, unless he goes down, then it's probably going to be Aaron Donald's, but, or it opens up. I think it opens up the floor if he gets hurt. But yeah, I can't really think of anybody that would I guess like TJ watt, you know, might be in the conversation. Like, is Von Miller still in the conversation like that? Like you might get some you might get some odds on that. But no, I mean, just sitting looking at it. I think it's Michael for sure.

Rob Kelly:

Yeah, for sure. I'm trying to look it up, but screw up. We're going like so offensive Rookie of the Year. We'll jump over that Kenny Pickett leading the way. Yeah, I that that kind of goes against your Mitchison which by the way, I love how you have your asana does this year I've heard you like three.

Dave Clarke:

I'm gonna I'm gonna sauceman

Rob Kelly:

Can you pick it? Number one? I'm not surprised by that. I obviously don't thinking. Mitch loses the job in the first few weeks and pick it has that season that we were talking about where you know, he stays average. He does what he's supposed to do. And in less than overwhelming rookie class. He takes it as the quarterback but the name I want everyone to look at here. There's two. So all the way down at where that was Jaylen Tober. For the Cowboys. I know this has been a very cowboys vetting every show. But plus 250 was plus 20 501 is crazy to me for a guy that could be the number two wide receiver and one of the more high powered passing offense in the league, it's pretty guaranteed that he's at least the number two wide receiver in the first four weeks of the season. So for him to be that low is crazy to me. I'm all about Jalen Tolbert this year other than that, I like Brees haul for the Jets. Plus 900 He's a bow cow. So if he averages four to 4.2 yards of carry, we're looking at a nine J. Harris Season from last year and I think that wins in New Orleans this year. Those are my guys I'm looking at

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, I like I like the Garrett Wilson call George Pickens not a bad call anyone receiver you like you like odds on I think they have a better chance of winning Rookie of the Year than a lot of offensive Rookie of the Year than a lot of other guys. They're, you know, the longest stick out so much more. Yeah, they just do. I mean, and also like if you can make a case for rookie of the year with a terrible quarterback from the wide receiver position, I think that oftentimes boosts your boosts your chances. But no, I like all those calls. I mean, Kenny pick it. I think any pick it up plus 700 is a risk because he's not he's not the starter. So if you're betting on that now, you know, I don't love it. Yeah, breeze haul. Decent bet. Probably I think you're probably right. To be honest with you, I think. I mean, I again, we talked about stay aways a little bit earlier. I feel like the NFL offensive Rookie of the Year is kind of up in the air here. I think there's a lot of guys who sort of equal chances to win it. And we kind of rookie the year beddings actually kind of tough to because they're, they're sort of on minimum quantities. You know, it's like you can have guys just bust so fucking hard, especially in an offensive side of the ball, especially if they go to places that are relevant that you know that they just don't get looked at. I think defense I only have one if you don't mind moving on. I only call out for defensive rookie of the year just because I like the odds. I mean, it probably is going to be Aiden Hutchinson. He is a fucking beast. So good. I think there's a reason is odds are so much lower than everybody else's. I think he's fun to watch. He's gonna be really good. He's probably gonna run defensive rookie of the year, but Kayvon Tibideaux I think plus 900 I think he's woefully underrated at that. at that position. I know he's going to the Giants, but he's an edge rusher. He could put up numbers in New York, if if he's sort of allowed to do what he needs to do. He's super confident. He's like, one of these guys is like I am the best rookie this season like fuck that which I kind of like especially for my edge rushers, especially from a guy who had to, especially in a place where they're trying to build culture again. And he's he's sort of been limited in the preseason. So he hasn't really been seen much. He's sort of still an unknown quantity. But I think that if you look back on what he actually has accomplished throughout his amateur career and his semi professional career, I think he's, he's got a great name. He's got a great football name. And I think that I think plus 900 That's a that's a great bet. I really, I I thought he was gonna be closer to Hutchinson, to be honest with you, I thought he'd be you know, a couple 100 away from him. But I personally don't know, those are great odds. Really, really great odds. I think that there's a really good chance he wins it. I think, you know, Hutchinson probably was the best defensive player to come out of that draft class, but for guys that are instantly pro ready, you know, like that. These are all the qualities that Tibideaux has that I know, you know, when you look look, look at the Minka Fitzpatrick so the world and you know when guys like that came into the league, it they had a lot of the same qualities. So I think it's a I think it's a smart little bit, you know, I put 4050 bucks on it. No

Rob Kelly:

problem. One guy I want to show Jordan Davis I don't know if you saw that the viral video that he had going around where he was pushing around NFL senators like they're like 14 year old boys. I like Jordan Davis a lot. And Rayshawn would be would have a heart attack if we didn't at least mention Kyle Hamilton. Do the Talking about Kyle Hamilton all offseason. He's got

Dave Clarke:

the same odds as Tibideaux though, and I like Tibideaux better. Yeah, yeah, for sure.

Rob Kelly:

I like Tibideaux better because he's the edge rusher. You know what I mean? That's, I feel like that's always what stands out with rookies is those guys that sack the quarterback that make those plays. Because listen, Kyle Hammonds gonna have a great season, but he's not going to stand out as much as someone who has 1314 sacks versus like two or three interceptions. So I'm with him on that for sure.

Dave Clarke:

By the way, if anyone's yelling at their radios, or earbuds or whatever, right now, in the fact we haven't mentioned Trayvon Walker, he fell off for me in the preseason. I feel like something's up with him. I know that he like, being the first overall, you know, of our being the first pick is kind of a DSS paper, especially when you go to a team like Jacksonville, and you have a weird preseason. And like a lot of strange things happen. I mean, he as he sat, he I think he got a sack in the preseason. But I don't know, I know. He's a rookie, you know, I know is expected to be up and down there plenum and different schemes and stuff. But he just didn't look the part to me. So I mean, I could be wrong. I'm happy to be wrong about him, but he's in Jacksonville again. So I don't know what that defense is really what their identity is, and what they really look like. So if anyone's wondering why we didn't shout him out, is he's at plus 650. It's not a terrible bet. But it's not enough for me to see with what I've seen, I guess if that makes sense. Yeah. No, it definitely does.

Rob Kelly:

He was he was a questionable first pick overall, you know, I mean, so now I'm with you on that. Are you saying move on with Coach of the Year? Yeah, great. Yeah. I mean, I honestly, I don't know where to even start with this, to be perfectly honest. Because if you're asking me that, I don't know how something like Brennan Staleys great. I guess the way that the Vegas is looking at it is if if the Chargers are good, it's because they fixed all their mistakes that they make at the end of games and they fix all these different things. So stay was gonna get that credit, especially from where they came from two or three years ago. And what they would have to do to get to that, to get to that point that's that's how I'm looking at it. The one that shocks me man is Brian Taboola plus 1600. Like, you, the Giants really have any kind of shot to have a good team this year. You know what I mean? Like,

Dave Clarke:

they're a little bit better than people think. I don't think they're like, amazing, but I do I don't. I don't know if that's such a bad call considering the kind of guy that gets coached the year a lot. You know, it's always the kind of like, oh, you're shitty team was slightly less shitty than they should have been kind of thing. You know what I mean? Or it's Bill belcheck. Or, you know what I mean? It's like, or if it's somebody that like, you know, really fucking turned it around, and like, you know, took a really bad team to be really good team, but I think I think the Giants you know, like, like I was talking about Tibideaux I think he's a really good edge rusher. I think they drafted really well. I think that they have like, I think that they're going in the right direction. What

Rob Kelly:

if you don't think so? No, I looked up the last five coaches the year and I'm sorry, what made me actually lol. That's the noise everyone makes. So now is four years ago, you know, a coach of the year? Who? manag

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, I bet he fucking did.

Rob Kelly:

Sorry. I didn't mean to laugh in the middle. Yeah,

Dave Clarke:

no. I mean, I remember you know, he was hot shit. That's what I mean, though. You know what I mean? That's what I mean.

Rob Kelly:

It proves your point. Exactly. Yeah. So last last for just for our knowledge. rabl Stefanski Harbaugh neck. So exactly what you were saying except for the hardball one where they went 14 and two, but again, I think that was just more unexpected. I would look at it. Like a John Harbaugh. If you're looking for bets here. John Harbaugh plus 2500 is a good one. Because Where's Doug Peterson? Peterson is plus 18.

Dave Clarke:

It's on his redemption tour. You know, there'll be eyes on him. I think he'll get more credit than he deserves. If he gets, you know, seven, eight wins out of that Jacksonville team. So you could see it. You can see it happening. What about Tomlin?

Rob Kelly:

Tomlin is his low 2800

Dave Clarke:

So my talent 2800 With it, you know, everybody coming into the season saying the Steelers are going in the trash, and he's never posted in under 500 season, you know, and he also took in Brian Flores and put him on the coaching staff and Mike did a nice thing there and he's kind of a pretty well liked coach and I don't know if he's ever wanted Has he ever wanted? I don't think he has. I mean, right plus one. 800 Mike Tomlin Pittsburgh Steelers. I don't hate it. I mean, you know, I think they're gonna be better than the odds have given him credit for so.

Unknown:

As you want to, let's see.

Dave Clarke:

I feel like he had never, never never one time. Yeah, he's do he's do put your put your 2800 on 2800. Let's go Mike Tomlin.

Rob Kelly:

I like it. I like it. Actually. You know, I think that that's what just happened. I think that's my area. I think that's my favorite coach of the year but I'm with you. I like Tom when that Coach of the Year 2800. The only other one I want to point out is just because listen, the dudes is a goat of coaching for a reason.

Dave Clarke:

Do you think Bella check has has plus 2200 If Bella check, gets double digit wins with the New England Patriots this year. It's one of the most impressive seasons of coaching he's actually had in regular season play with the with the NFL in the NFL, because that picture seems fucking terrible. So if he gets double digit wins if he wins 1112 games, great candidate for Coach of the Year green folk, because that the narrative could emerge. You know, the narrative could emerge around week six of like, they are overachieving, and it's thanks to that man, right, you can just hear Chris Collingsworth and it's just thanks to that man right there Bill Belichick. He's still got it. And you know, he lost his quarterback Tom Brady, bah, bah, bah, you know, you can just hear it, you can hear it here. The narrative fucking starts and it starts to go and like they went a big Sunday night game or whatever, you know, and it's like, oh, maybe and obviously, they're not going to do it. But you know, all those guys who've been doing the ASC a plus 2200 and listen to us. Everybody can sit and pretty it could happen. Could happen. But you know, this is the wrong show. If you're here for if you're here for like, let's fucking celebrate Bill Belichick and during the Patriots were on with their fingers.

Rob Kelly:

At least for the last two. At least. That's what I mean. Yeah, but ya

Dave Clarke:

know about check is the best coach in the NFL. You know, he suffers from LeBron itis a little bit. You know, there's a lot there's about 11 years where LeBron should have been the MVP in the NBA every single season, but people just kind of kind of bored of it. So they didn't make the MVP every single season. But he was so he is still the best coach in the NFL. He is still the best, the most talented, the most successful, but you can't just give it to that guy every year, I guess makes the award a little redundant. So is he still the best coach? Yes. Is he going to win Coach of the Year? I mean, the odds don't think so. But that's why we play the game.

Rob Kelly:

Okay, all right. So you know, we didn't even talk about this the top what let's circle it all back. We'll close it out with our favorite Super Bowl bats of the year. So I'm, I'm gonna go Yeah, I'm gonna go. Listen. I wouldn't be myself. If I didn't at least mention the Cowboys at plus 2000 The winds are wrong. I'm sorry that but but but if you're Telling me a team that has the most upside around this area right so the other one I'm going to talk about isn't a team we are talking about two so the Cowboys are at plus 2000. And the bangles are right around plus 2000. I love those two man because if you're talking about so a you have a team that's on like you said, this is right or die. If it doesn't happen this year for the Cowboys. First of all, McCarthy's probably gone to questions about dads Zeke's probably got like this. This is the year for the boys. So I do think at plus 2000, you're getting great value with a team that has all the incentive. Right all the incentive to win a Super Bowl, and then the bank was meritless I know the Super Bowl hangover is a real thing. But if you're telling me plus 2018 that we just saw, can run the table at any time Joe burrow can get hot Jamar Chase can get half

Dave Clarke:

if anyone can drag their team out of a Super Bowl hangover or prevent their team for being in a Super Bowl hangover. It's Joe burrow. I think he's got the best mentality of quarterback

Rob Kelly:

I do got sacks seven times in a playoff game anymore. Look, I

Dave Clarke:

just think if they had any any semblance of an offensive line, they win that game and I think that I think they're really talented team I think he's a really good quarterback. I fucking like him. You know I like watching him I like his whole attitude. I like his swagger. Yeah, if anyone can prevent a Super Bowl hangover and in a circumstance where you can really point to one thing not like the failure of the team or the failure the mentality just a failure the fucking offensive one you can really just point to that and they still had a shot you know, before and after fat 50 cent came on the scene. I think it's a I think it's a real I think it's a really good bet. Yeah, I agree. I also like the charges of 1400 By the way, I'll say that one more time. charges a plus 1400 Not a bad Super Bowl. But

Rob Kelly:

yeah, and listen, we're not sitting here I'm not sitting here telling you that we think that these teams are better than the bills are better embarks on the chiefs. Right? Right exactly. We're not saying here that you know the plus 2000 is a better better bet we think is more likely to happen than the bills a plus 600 Because we all know the bills are more likely when supervillain goddamn capitalists that's just a fact sure but if you're telling me to toss five bucks down on something it's gonna be the Cowboys bangles are like you said the Chargers I think those are three really smart Super Bowl bets that I think you'll at least be in play come that last weekend or last weekend of the season.

Dave Clarke:

Yeah, and I don't think we've advised you to take any put it put your hard earned money on anything that's definitely not going to happen you know that these plus 30 5000s like that. There's a reason that those odds are those odds like it's not going to happen, it's just not going to happen. It'd be the craziest thing that ever happened if it did and I just before we go I just do want to say one thing I know that this is a gambling themed show just like things were in high support of drugs and alcohol. I think you should do all those things in moderation. If you think you have a problem. You should definitely talk to somebody. Gambling is for fun, it's not for life. It's not to make money don't gamble more than you can afford. And don't lose more than you want to tell your wife about. That's

Rob Kelly:

a great way to cap it off man so forth Z cases. Oh, I'm the real BK Bob Kelly. That responsibly. That big if you want isn't missing the point we're out